There was a time when I thought Obama wouldn't be re-elected. I assumed the economy was so bad that he could only win if he could explain that Republicans blocked his great plans. And he can't really say that.
But we are at the point now where polls are much better at telling us what might happen than suppositions based on generalities. I check Nate Silver's blog every day, and so I am now pretty confident that Obama can and will win (his model says Obama is a 68.7% favorite).
There are only two things that worry me. One is still the economy. If it goes south, I think Obama loses. Two, I am a little worried about the debates. There is a chance that Romney shines and Obama doesn't, and in a close race, that might matter. I think Obama is a better debater and when he makes gaffes, they are less bad than Romney's (ie $10,000), but the worrier in me thinks it could be a problem.
But putting those two things aside, I feel pretty good about the presidency. And the Senate (thanks to Akin).
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Bush: More Rethinking
I wrote a post about how I was rethinking Bush in light of the major right turn of the GOP. With Bush not even part of the Republican convention, I have more thoughts / questions.
My question is why the GOP is distancing themselves from him? Yes, he was and remains unpopular. Yet the things he is unpopular for are things the GOP still stands for. Bush is unpopular because of the recession and the Iraq War. But Mitt Romney's economic policies are more of the same from Bush and show he hasn't learned anything from the Great Recessions. And his foreign policy - specifically its belligerence towards Iran - shows he didn't learn any lessons from the Iraq War.
My best guess is that the GOP is distancing themselves from Bush because people might see the connection between the GOP platform and Bush (and might even realize the GOP is even more extreme than Bush was). But this is a party that seems to laugh in the face of unpopularity. I would have expected them to highlight Bush and try to say he was right about all of those things. That would be the honest thing to do. And the decent thing to do as well.
Instead, they are humiliating someone for having the audacity to implement policies the party still supports.
My question is why the GOP is distancing themselves from him? Yes, he was and remains unpopular. Yet the things he is unpopular for are things the GOP still stands for. Bush is unpopular because of the recession and the Iraq War. But Mitt Romney's economic policies are more of the same from Bush and show he hasn't learned anything from the Great Recessions. And his foreign policy - specifically its belligerence towards Iran - shows he didn't learn any lessons from the Iraq War.
My best guess is that the GOP is distancing themselves from Bush because people might see the connection between the GOP platform and Bush (and might even realize the GOP is even more extreme than Bush was). But this is a party that seems to laugh in the face of unpopularity. I would have expected them to highlight Bush and try to say he was right about all of those things. That would be the honest thing to do. And the decent thing to do as well.
Instead, they are humiliating someone for having the audacity to implement policies the party still supports.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Romney: What Will He Do?
I am finding it difficult to predict what Mitt Romney will do in office if he becomes president. In the past, I have assumed that he is acting very conservative because he fears his base, so he will act that way in office. However, he has refused to take any position that might be at all unpopular. O anything that could be unpopular he is vague or silent. So this really makes me wonder what he will do in office.
It is clear that his policies, if looked at what is implied to meet his promises, are extremely conservative. It is also clear that doing what is implied would be deeply unpopular. The best example of this is his budget and the cuts that would be required to allow him to balance the budget, cut taxes, increase defense spending, and keep medicare and social security whole. To meet these goals he would have to gut all other government programs.
So will he go through with his unpopular policies or will be back down and be much more moderate? Jonathan Chait points to noise from the campaign suggesting Romney wants so bad to institute real change, even if it is deeply unpopular and causes him to have only a one-term presidency.
President Obama said the same thing and he was clearly being disingenuous. (The Romney campaign makes it sound more credible by referencing James Polk, though misrepresenting the history a bit.) And I don’t see Romney as being the one who is more willing than Obama to be unpopular.
It’s not like these are positions Romney has held dear. He has become a staunch conservative to win the nomination but as we all know he was a moderate as governor of Massachusetts.
So I am stuck. Will he actually take very unpopular steps to institute deeply conservative policies? I think Chait is right that Conservatives want to, seeing as that it is their last chance considering where the demographics are going.
It's possible that Mitt Romney doesn't even knows what he will do. Maybe he doesn't realize these policies will be deeply unpopular. Either way, I am not too worried. If the demographics are right, I don't see such far right policies saying for long. As Douthat points out in the Polk piece, the things Romney et al want to do are far in the future and easily overturned. Except for the budget cuts: though they can be reversed in short time there will be some short term damage.
It is clear that his policies, if looked at what is implied to meet his promises, are extremely conservative. It is also clear that doing what is implied would be deeply unpopular. The best example of this is his budget and the cuts that would be required to allow him to balance the budget, cut taxes, increase defense spending, and keep medicare and social security whole. To meet these goals he would have to gut all other government programs.
So will he go through with his unpopular policies or will be back down and be much more moderate? Jonathan Chait points to noise from the campaign suggesting Romney wants so bad to institute real change, even if it is deeply unpopular and causes him to have only a one-term presidency.
President Obama said the same thing and he was clearly being disingenuous. (The Romney campaign makes it sound more credible by referencing James Polk, though misrepresenting the history a bit.) And I don’t see Romney as being the one who is more willing than Obama to be unpopular.
It’s not like these are positions Romney has held dear. He has become a staunch conservative to win the nomination but as we all know he was a moderate as governor of Massachusetts.
So I am stuck. Will he actually take very unpopular steps to institute deeply conservative policies? I think Chait is right that Conservatives want to, seeing as that it is their last chance considering where the demographics are going.
It's possible that Mitt Romney doesn't even knows what he will do. Maybe he doesn't realize these policies will be deeply unpopular. Either way, I am not too worried. If the demographics are right, I don't see such far right policies saying for long. As Douthat points out in the Polk piece, the things Romney et al want to do are far in the future and easily overturned. Except for the budget cuts: though they can be reversed in short time there will be some short term damage.
Monday, August 27, 2012
2012 as 2004
This race reminds me more and more of 2004, with the party roles reversed. A
rich, awkward, uninspiring candidate running as the opposite of the
incumbent president (ie making the race a referendum - though it seems Romney is moving away from this).
A younger, relatively untested, more base-inspiring running-mate. The challenger is more about his biography and has only vague or unformed plans (Kerry was a real war veteran who could fix Iraq and Romney is the businessman who can save the economy).
The main difference is that Kerry wasn’t proposing to implement a far-far-left government, as Romney is.
Anyway, some splendid similarities.
A younger, relatively untested, more base-inspiring running-mate. The challenger is more about his biography and has only vague or unformed plans (Kerry was a real war veteran who could fix Iraq and Romney is the businessman who can save the economy).
The main difference is that Kerry wasn’t proposing to implement a far-far-left government, as Romney is.
Anyway, some splendid similarities.
Romney's New Direction
Ezra Klien has a piece on how the Romney campaign has jettisoned its three premises for the campaign:
The last point I think is defensible, to be honest. I imagine the Romney campaign has seen how harsh the Obama campaign has been, and seen how voters are perceiving it - taking some of the shine off of President Obama. If Obama is less likable, the Romney campaign should be penalized less for going after him.
The first was to make this a referendum, not a choice. The second was to keep it focused on the economy. The third was to bow to Obama’s essential likability by treating him as a decent guy who is simply in over his head.He then says they have made it a choice by having Paul Ryan as the runningmate and have moved away from the economy, talking about Medicare and Welfare (with what seems to be some race whistles by the Romney campaign). And they have attacked Obama's character.
The last point I think is defensible, to be honest. I imagine the Romney campaign has seen how harsh the Obama campaign has been, and seen how voters are perceiving it - taking some of the shine off of President Obama. If Obama is less likable, the Romney campaign should be penalized less for going after him.
What Matters to Romney?
I can’t figure out what matters to Mitt Romney - what is the thing he has been consistent on from day one - starting back in his campaign for Senate against Ted Kennedy. Something he won't move to the right on to please the base. But I can't find anything. Everything seems open to him to move far right.
There is nothing moderate or even sensible - not even on business and the
economy.
What finally made me realize this was his is arguing against active monetary policy and allowing gold standard talk in the GOP platform.This seems to be against the advice of his economic advisers. And as a businessman, it must be against his own good judgement. If it isn't, then his business acumen is far, far less impressive than we allow. Going back to the gold standard would be a disaster and wouldn't even lead to stable money. And a less active monetary policy would have made the recession worse and goes against Milton Friedman's teachings.
I would understand if he was a strong business leader and was willing to cede to the right all social policies. But this isn’t the case. He is espousing far right policies in every arena. And the least sensible ideas are the in the area he knows the most about (or should) and therefore are the ones you would most expect him to understand and reject.
I just don't get it. The only explanation is that Romney just wants to be President for purely ambitious reasons and doesn't care about policy at all.
What finally made me realize this was his is arguing against active monetary policy and allowing gold standard talk in the GOP platform.This seems to be against the advice of his economic advisers. And as a businessman, it must be against his own good judgement. If it isn't, then his business acumen is far, far less impressive than we allow. Going back to the gold standard would be a disaster and wouldn't even lead to stable money. And a less active monetary policy would have made the recession worse and goes against Milton Friedman's teachings.
I would understand if he was a strong business leader and was willing to cede to the right all social policies. But this isn’t the case. He is espousing far right policies in every arena. And the least sensible ideas are the in the area he knows the most about (or should) and therefore are the ones you would most expect him to understand and reject.
I just don't get it. The only explanation is that Romney just wants to be President for purely ambitious reasons and doesn't care about policy at all.
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