Turkey on the Balance

This article ($) from the New York Times sums up the situation in Turkey pretty well. They are situated in such a way that they could either look to the west and adopt government policies based on a European / American model (in regards to human rights, open economy, transparency, etc) and serve as a beacon of light for the rest of the Middle East, or they could instead look to the east and base their practices on countries like Iran, Syria or Saudi Arabia.

What has kept them looking west and making real progress was the carrot of potential membership in the European Union. Now that this is no longer likely in the near future, it seems like there might be less that keeps them looking west.

To try to win membership [to the EU], the Turkish government enacted a series of rigorous reforms to bring the country in line with European standards, including some unprecedented in the Muslim world, like a law against marital rape.

But the admission talks have stalled. And while the official reason involves the longstanding Greek-Turkish dispute over Cyprus, most Turks say they believe the real reason is a deep suspicion of their country's religion.

Indeed, in 2002, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president, said Turkey's admission to the union would mean "the end of Europe." Nicholas Sarkozy, the French presidential hopeful, has made his opposition to Turkish membership a campaign issue. Even the pope, when he was still a cardinal in Germany, said publicly that he did not think Turkey fit into Europe because it was Muslim. That talk has begun to grate on Turks.

[Edit]

Despite growing pains, a neglected Kurdish minority in the south, a thin skin for any reference to the Armenian genocide, and failure to scrap a law that makes insulting Turkishness a crime, Turkey stands out as lively democracy in a larger Middle East riddled with restrictions, and its acceptance by the West is a test case for others, officials said.

Muslim countries, Mr. Tan points out, are watching.

"Turkey is a beacon for those countries," he said. "Don't forget, if we fail, then the whole dream will fail."

A few quotes from moderately influential Europeans (including an obviously anti-Muslim Pope) isn't necessarily proof that their religion is what has kept Turkey out. Just based on the quote above (especially the part about insulting Turkishness being a crime) it appears that Turkey has a ways to go before its government is up to the West's exacting standards. But it is hard to say that religion isn't even a factor.

In the future it will be hard to convince any Muslim country that there are benefits to reform when Turkey couldn't get into the EU despite the changes it has made. This can only continue to make Muslims feel like the West will never really treat them as equals. I think if the EU was wise, it would accept Turkey while continuing to push for further reforms. We need to break the cycle and show through our deeds that we respect Muslims and their faith, even if that means making some compromises along the way.