How Many Died, Really?

One of the things that has bothered me the most about the Iraq War is the immense cost it has had on Iraqis. It makes it even harder when no one, least of all the American military, has been interested in quantifying the impacts on the Iraqi population. Instead, we were left with outside groups indirectly estimating the number of Iraqis killed - with one report concluding that as much as 600,000 Iraqis died.

Well, we finally have an estimate from the Iraqi government. Their report estimates that 85,000 people died, not including insurgents or foreigners. At first blush, I am tempted to trust the Iraqi government more than Johns Hopkins since they presumably have access to more information. (Then again, Johns Hopkins might be less inclined to fudge the numbers for political reasons.)

What is really frustrating about such wildly different estimates though is that it makes analyzing the impact on the Iraqis near impossible. Although 85,000 is not a small number, I could understand how that number might make the invasion worth it in the long run if Iraq becomes a democratic and stable society (not a foregone conclusion yet). But 600,000 is much bigger and seems much harder to forget.

Of course, whether the war was worth will be up to the Iraqis, who should have been the ones to call for our invasion to begin with. And when the Iraqis decide if the invasion was worth it, I imagine it will be the experiences of the people that lived through the invasion and the impacts on their lives that matter more than a statistic. People will likely judge the war by how many people close to them died, or by how many people (or themselves) were forced to flee the country during the height of the violence.