A while ago I wrote about the triangle between Sunni Arab countries, Shiite countries, and Israel and the potential for two to gang up on the other. Once I looked at that situation as a triangle, I started to see triangles in other places.
In this post, I will talk about a triangle in Iran. The three sides of the triangle are the theocracy, democracy, and the military. Iran tries to mix a theocracy with a democracy and has a military to protect both. As in any triangle, two sides can and do join together to overpower the other.
What has happened in Iran is that the theocracy felt threatened by the democracy and has chosen to join with the military to significantly weaken the democracy. President Ahmadinejad did this by giving important positions to people in the military, creating a government largely run by the military and dependent on Ahmadinejad for their positions.
So what they have created is a theocratic military state (masking as a religious republic). The question then is how long the theocratic military state can last before the democracy (maybe paired with some of the theocracy) rises up and regains power.
The key in any situation like this is the strength of the military. In Turkey, the military considers itself protector of the democracy and regularly steps in to prevent the democracy from having too much religious influence. But one can argue that the military is so strong that it is denying real democracy by denying complete choice.
But wherever you have a strong military, you risk the military becoming the only side - becoming unstoppable. Iran risks this very thing. While the military has always been strong, I think the question among some people right now is whether the stronger of the two partners is the military or the theocracy. Is Ayatollah Khamenei creating a monster he can no longer control?
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