Book Report: Physics for Future Presidents

Physics for Future Presidents is the best book I have read on Global Warming. It really analyzes the data and objectively states what we know and don't know. (Compare this to Super Freakonomics, which throws in random pieces of information, usually out of context, to undermine the case for global warming - or at least the case for urgent action - while also admitting that it is real. Read this book and ignore Super Freakonomics.)

This book also has a really good explanation of nuclear technology and radiation, chemical and biological weapons, and space. In this post though I will focus on global warming. Here is some of the relevant information on climate change from the book. I will go so far as to say that what is listed below are facts beyond dispute.

Carbon
- The earth's atmosphere contains 0.038% - or 380 parts per million - carbon dioxide. Nitrogen and Oxygen make up 99% of atmosphere and do not absorb infrared radiation.
- In the late 1800s there was only 280 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
- There is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than anytime in the last 20 million years.

Climate
- The earth has definitely been warming over the last 150 years.
- The hockey stick graph is wrong - it contained poor analysis. Temperatures are not the warmest they have been in the last 1,000 years. But they are the warmest they have been in the last 400 years.
- Temperatures have increased 2F in the last century.
- The earth's temperature over the last 14,000 years has been mostly stable since the last ice age, which was around 12,000 - 10,000 BC. There has historically been an ice age every 10,000 years - some think this is due to a wobble in the earth's axis caused by Jupiter and Venus.
- The 600,000 year CO2 and temperature graph (made famous by Al Gore and a lift truck) is misleading. We do not know which way the causation goes. CO2 may have increased due to the temperature increases. In fact, increase in CO2 seems to lag the temperature increase by 800 years.

Ocean Changes
- Sea level rises can be attributed more to water expanding as the temperature of the ocean increases than to melting ice.
- Antarctic ice is melting. It was originally thought that Antarctic ice would increase, as water vapor increased in the air and more snow fell on Antarctica. Instead, more rain is falling.
- The ocean pH is changing. It is becoming more acidic (actually it is becoming more neutral but the point being that it is moving on the scale to be less basic and more acidic). Increasing acidity interferes with formation of external shells and skeletons for ocean life.
- Permafrost is thawing in some places.

IPCC Conclusions
- The IPCC says there is a 10% chance that humans are not responsible for temperature changes and a 90% chance that we are responsible.
- Temperatures are predicted to rise another 3F - 10F in the next 50 years.
- The predominant reason for the uncertainty is water vapor and cloud cover. There is a chance that temperature increases, which will increase water vapor in the air, might also increase cloud cover, thereby moderating temperature increases.

My Conclusions
- We may not be 100 percent sure that we are causing global warming, but we are sure enough that we should take precautions. It makes no sense to say that we need to wait until there is no doubt before we act. Think of any other example (heart attack) where you were 90 percent sure something bad was going to happen but you refused to act until you were certain.
- Although the models are imperfect, we are confident that temperatures will continue to rise. Again, we need to plan for this and find ways to try to prevent it.