Summary:
Rwanda's president is suppressing dissent in hopes of allowing the country to enact economic and government reforms and give it a chance to remain stable. This level of control though has the potential to spark future violence, which may be unavoidable anyway.
A little while ago I wrote a short piece about the current state of Rwanda. My information came from a small article about Paul Rusesabagina, the real life hero of Hotel Rwanda, and how he views the current government in Rwanda. Looking back, my post was pretty superficial because my understanding of the current situation was also superficial. But after reading this article in the New York Review of Books, I think I have a much better grasp of the situation.
My previous post wasn't actually wrong, but according to the article there is reason for optimism. It is true that the current president Paul Kagame, the former leader of the RPF, the Tutsi military force that took control of the country and ended the genocide, exercises strict control over the population and suppresses dissent. This is something Rusesabagina, a Hutu, opposes. There are some though who feel that this is necessary right now to prevent another genocide and give the country the chance to engage economic and government reforms. Kagame's goals are lofty, and he seems to have the support of some in the West.
The fact remains though that the majority of the country is Hutu. It remains to be seen then how the majority will respond to suppression of dissent. It could end up leading to future violence if the Hutu population feels like second class citizens. According to the article, the potential for future ethnic cleansing lies just below the surface. On top of that, we have seen many leaders in the past resort to authoritarianism as a so-called temporary measure, and then later refuse to give up control.
There look to be so many ways that Rwanda could go wrong and devolve into violence again. There is a long history of civil war in the country even before 1994, and it is a past that will be hard not to repeat. I know the international community wants to see it remain stable, but if it doesn't, I wonder if they will get any real support this time around.
