Update on 2012 Election

I just want to give my latest thoughts on the upcoming presidential elections. First, I want to say that I actually think President Obama will get a second term. There are two reasons I have changed my mind.

First, the economy seems to be on the mend. And if you'll remember, one of the main reasons I thought he would lose was because the economy wasn't doing well and there was nothing he could say he wanted to do but was prevented. With the economy improving, that goes away and he can instead take credit for it.

But second, the potential GOP challengers are a mess. It looks like Romney will probably get the nomination, though this is no sure thing. Santorum is doing surprisingly well and Gingrich is holding on. If Romney wins, he will do so not by articulating a better vision, but by making his opponents look even worse.

It is clear that Romney is using quite a bit of negative advertising when his opponents start to do well. I'm not saying I oppose this - I don't love it - but my point is more that it shows the weakness of a candidate that has to rely on negative advertising so much.

Romney is also spending quite a bit of money and not raising quite so much. At this time during the elections in 2008, Obama and Hillary were beating each other up, but they were also raising a ton of money and building strong ground operations for the general. None of the GOP candidates are doing this. All, including Romney, are spending on advertising and not on organization.

But I also want to note the possibility that Romney does not win the nomination. If it is Santorum or Gingrich, the party will be sending far right candidates to the general election (though you can call the current version of Romney far right as well). Santorum holds some really crazy positions, not the least of which that a man and a woman should not have sex unless married and trying to conceive. And therefore contraception is wrong. Gingrich is now far right, but also just a lose cannon.

I don't think either of them could win a general election - though it is scary to consider it and to know that it is possible if unlikely.

There is the potential, though also unlikely, for a new GOP candidate to come in through the convention. Whoever that would be would start with a huge disadvantage in money and organizing. Although I will say, I might prefer someone like Jeb Bush if it would lead to a good debate about issues.

Lastly, I just want to express real frustration over GOP attempts, including by Romney (who never ceases to amaze me in his ability to say things that are not true and that I don't think he believes), to paint Obama as a far left liberal. But I am even more frustrated over Obama letting them do that.

The GOP has been attacking Obama's foreign policy, though it is not markedly different from Bush and Cheney (I wish it was). Romney said Obama wants to talk about the poor instead of the middle class even though he doesn't seem to (I wish he did). His attempts to balance the budget are center-right. And his State of the Union seemed to talk only about tax cuts.

I wish we had a president that was liberal and defended liberal values. But at the least, he should really defend his moderation and attack Republicans for lying.

Gingrich v. Romney

Dear Conservative, 

I see that in the latest, and probably last, iteration of the your anyone-but-Romney fickleness, Newt Gingrich has surged in the polls. In the past, I have avoided writing on the newest surge because I assumed the person would crash. There are a lot of reasons why Gingrich might (money, staff, erratic behavior, skeletons), but the right is desperate, and he might actually stick around.

Since I think I am pretty good at thinking like a conservative, I am going to talk through with you the decision you might face: Romney versus Gingrich.

First, I want to acknowledge that you face a difficult task. Between the two, there is only one similarity I can think of: Both candidates have a history of supporting positions that are now unsupportable - namely carbon cap and trade and health care individual mandate.

Other than that, the candidates are pretty different. Romney is perceived as a moderate that has flipped to win the primary - which makes him untrustworthy. However, he is also seen as competent and probably a good manager; his business successes and time as governor support that perception. And though he seems slippery, maybe robotic, he doesn't have any baggage around family issues that Gingrich has.

Gingrich has conservative credentials. So his flipping is perceived as erratic - or better, excused because others in the party have flipped (ie Heritage Foundation). He is seen as an ideas man, though maybe too wildly seeking new ideas and not grounded enough to manage an administration well. And though he is smart, some of his ideas and theories are not well thought-out. Also, his history with his wives shows a major lack of compassion, loyalty and moral decency - and his timing with the impeachment reeks of hypocrisy (though you probably don't care about that - better to go after a liberal like Clinton hypocritically than to be consistent and therefore not impeach a Democratic president). 

Finally, and perhaps the worst unless he can continue to disingenuously sweet talk his way out of it, is his lobbying. I don't think people will continue to buy that Gingrich was only providing history lessons for millions of dollars. And, if you are getting paid to support an idea, even if you would like the idea anyway, it is still lobbying.

In looking at the two options, I think you, dear conservative, have a difficult choice. A robotic but competent former governor whose core positions and values seem open for change with the winds or an erratic but full of ideas former legislator and lobbyist who lacks compassion and loyalty. I would probably go with the one more likely to be a good manager. But then again, maybe having loyalty to conservative principles is more important. And despite his erraticness sometimes, Gingrich is better on that front.