There was a poll out recently showing Obama's approval rating in Arab countries is very low. I think this is emblamatic of Obama's presidency as a whole (save for health care). Obama, as we well know, campaigned on hope and change. And we all hoped, but he hasn't created any change.
Mario Cuomo once said that one campaigns in poetry and governs in prose. This clever saying suggests that it is easier to wax poetic about your views and beliefs, but actually delivering is hard and sometimes ugly.
But I don't think that is Obama's problem. For the most part, Obama has refused to actually fight for things that we (liberals, the international community, etc) thought he was going to fight for - and that is why he hasn't achieved any change.
If I could create a quote that fits Obama, it would be that Obama campaigned in poetry, then completely changed his mind and decided not to live up to his poetry. His stance on Israel has been enough to anger a conservative government, but not enough to really be viewed as a principled stand. He didn't defend the protesters in Egypt until late in the game (whereas the Bush Administration condemned Mubarak years before the protests).
He hasn't been able to close Guantanamo - although that can be more linked governing in prose. He renewed the Patriot Act without any discussion or changes.
Sarah Palin famously said of Obama, "How's that hopey changey stuff workin' out for ya?" Although her critique was that he was doing too much changing, and for the worse, to me the quote hits for the opposite reason: he isn't changing much. But worse, he isn't really fighting for anything.
The only big exception is in Libya, where he rightfully acted to prevent massacre of civilians. However, standing tall against Quadaffi isn't that difficult. Standing up to Saudi Arabia or Syria is difficult and would represent real change. But Obama isn't willing to do it.
The bottom line is that when you look around the world, what has Obama actually done? He hasn't invested more resources in places like Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, or Sudan. He has accomplished very little in Israel and hasn't taken many principled stands. (I think he judges a principled stand based on the blowback he gets, not on the merits of the stand. In other words, if it pisses off Republicans, it must be good enough.)
And so I look back on all the excitement and even worse, the Nobel Peace Prize, and I feel ashamed. But he should feel even more ashamed. We all thought he would make big changes from the Bush administration in ways that matter. But he hasn't. Hopey changey indeed.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Friday, July 22, 2011
More Thoughts About Apollo - the Space Program, Not the BSG Character
I was lying down to go to sleep and started thinking more about the debate I am having on manned space flights. What kept me up was the realization that I was probably too brief, and not as thoughtful as I should have been, when talking about Apollo and national pride. So let me explore it a little more and relate it back to our current situation.
Apollo was done for national pride, but I should also have acknowledged that there was more to it than that. We were pushing our boundaries. And that I believe is where much of the research gains came from. In a short time - 10 years - we conquered space. But to do so, we had to learn how to leave our planet - safely and reliably - to survive in space, to reach another body, to land on it, to take off again from it, to return to our planet, and to enter our atmosphere and land safely. Before 1960, I think we had little experience in most of those things, save for launching things from our planet into space.
And because we were pushing our boundaries so much, and because we had to develop new tools to accomplish all of those things, there were naturally many gains in research. But once we did accomplish those things, the further research payoffs were expensive to achieve (more trips to the moon) with smaller payoffs.
And that is where I see us now. Returning to the moon or going to Mars isn't pushing any significant boundaries. (And as I have said over and over again, the Shuttle is not the best way to achieve low earth orbit.) And so I don't see us making many gains in research or learning through Constellation. There will be some, but they can only be marginal - whereas the costs are extreme.
Because it is clear there are little research gains, most people have only been able to argue to continue the Shuttle or to pursue Constellation for sentimental reasons (Neil DeGrasse Tyson of the Rose Center has made these arguments). While I understand the sentiment, I don't think it is enough. There is a reason we stopped going to the moon - we had no purpose to justify the funding. And we still don't. Until it becomes cheaper, we have to be able to accept that we shouldn't be going.
Apollo was done for national pride, but I should also have acknowledged that there was more to it than that. We were pushing our boundaries. And that I believe is where much of the research gains came from. In a short time - 10 years - we conquered space. But to do so, we had to learn how to leave our planet - safely and reliably - to survive in space, to reach another body, to land on it, to take off again from it, to return to our planet, and to enter our atmosphere and land safely. Before 1960, I think we had little experience in most of those things, save for launching things from our planet into space.
And because we were pushing our boundaries so much, and because we had to develop new tools to accomplish all of those things, there were naturally many gains in research. But once we did accomplish those things, the further research payoffs were expensive to achieve (more trips to the moon) with smaller payoffs.
And that is where I see us now. Returning to the moon or going to Mars isn't pushing any significant boundaries. (And as I have said over and over again, the Shuttle is not the best way to achieve low earth orbit.) And so I don't see us making many gains in research or learning through Constellation. There will be some, but they can only be marginal - whereas the costs are extreme.
Because it is clear there are little research gains, most people have only been able to argue to continue the Shuttle or to pursue Constellation for sentimental reasons (Neil DeGrasse Tyson of the Rose Center has made these arguments). While I understand the sentiment, I don't think it is enough. There is a reason we stopped going to the moon - we had no purpose to justify the funding. And we still don't. Until it becomes cheaper, we have to be able to accept that we shouldn't be going.
This is Our Life, This is Our Song
Joe over at FroJoe has called a blog war! It is on! Joe has a good follow-up post regarding our shuttle debate.
To keep things simple, I think we can identify two main reasons to entertain the idea of manned space exploration. One is for research, the other is for national pride / inspiration (ie to keep Joe from feeling sad when he sees a private name on a space vehicle). After we decide which reason compels us to consider it, we then need to decide if the options available are good options and worth the gains.
I feel strongly that when conducting space exploration, research needs to be our main priority. To keep this post simple, I've put my explanation for why doing it for national pride is a problem in another post.
If research is our driving goal, then I fully agree that there are good research reasons for manned space exploration. But where I diverge is whether we have good policy options and whether the options are worth the research payoffs. In other words, I don't think the Shuttle or Constellation (the Bush program that would have eventually taken manned flights to the moon and mars) are good options.
As I said in my original post, I find the Space Shuttle to be too expensive and dangerous with the research payoffs too small to be worth continuing. We can find cheaper and safer ways to achieve low earth orbit.
And Constellation is also not the answer right now. Its troubles are great - over budget, behind schedule, and with some serious technical issues that need to be worked out (see the GAO paper).
Basically, I think the technology is not there to conduct bigger missions at a reasonable price (and there is no need for NASA to take on the risk of developing its own new low earth orbit vehicle).
I think it is instructive to compare another area where we could achieve research gains if we spent a lot more money - at the bottom of our oceans. If there was a decision to fully explore our depths (based on politics and national pride), we could spend hundreds of billions of dollars and take extra risks and learn a lot more. But instead, with ocean exploration we are able to let the technology progress and undertake research when the costs and risks are reasonable.
I think space exploration should be the same way. At the moment, based on where the technology is, we don't have any good options. So let’s use this time to let technology develop and reassess what our goals really are and what we can reasonably accomplish. And when we have good options to meet our research goals at reasonable costs, then let's shoot for the moon! Or Mars. Whichever.
*The title are lyrics from Twisted Sister's We're Not Gonna Take It.
To keep things simple, I think we can identify two main reasons to entertain the idea of manned space exploration. One is for research, the other is for national pride / inspiration (ie to keep Joe from feeling sad when he sees a private name on a space vehicle). After we decide which reason compels us to consider it, we then need to decide if the options available are good options and worth the gains.
I feel strongly that when conducting space exploration, research needs to be our main priority. To keep this post simple, I've put my explanation for why doing it for national pride is a problem in another post.
If research is our driving goal, then I fully agree that there are good research reasons for manned space exploration. But where I diverge is whether we have good policy options and whether the options are worth the research payoffs. In other words, I don't think the Shuttle or Constellation (the Bush program that would have eventually taken manned flights to the moon and mars) are good options.
As I said in my original post, I find the Space Shuttle to be too expensive and dangerous with the research payoffs too small to be worth continuing. We can find cheaper and safer ways to achieve low earth orbit.
And Constellation is also not the answer right now. Its troubles are great - over budget, behind schedule, and with some serious technical issues that need to be worked out (see the GAO paper).
Basically, I think the technology is not there to conduct bigger missions at a reasonable price (and there is no need for NASA to take on the risk of developing its own new low earth orbit vehicle).
I think it is instructive to compare another area where we could achieve research gains if we spent a lot more money - at the bottom of our oceans. If there was a decision to fully explore our depths (based on politics and national pride), we could spend hundreds of billions of dollars and take extra risks and learn a lot more. But instead, with ocean exploration we are able to let the technology progress and undertake research when the costs and risks are reasonable.
I think space exploration should be the same way. At the moment, based on where the technology is, we don't have any good options. So let’s use this time to let technology develop and reassess what our goals really are and what we can reasonably accomplish. And when we have good options to meet our research goals at reasonable costs, then let's shoot for the moon! Or Mars. Whichever.
*The title are lyrics from Twisted Sister's We're Not Gonna Take It.
National Pride - USA! USA! USA!
In another post, I made a second argument about why we shouldn't continue the Shuttle or spend money on Constellation. This post is just for me to express my warning about using national pride to make decisions on science.
My first thesis is that national pride and research, as goals for space exploration and other scientific endeavors, are not compatible but instead in conflict. To see this, we need to look no further than the Apollo program.
I think it is clear that the Apollo program was developed to compete and win a space war against the Soviet Union. And what ensued was an ambitious and dangerous program that was ultimately successful at achieving its goal - landing on the moon before the Soviets.
But since national pride was the main goal, research tagged along but took a back seat. While on the moon, we did conduct some experiments. But it was clear that we were there for pride and once we were there, we didn't have long or medium term research goals. After all, our goal was to get there first.
And in fact, once we achieved the main goal, the tag-along goal of research didn't justify many return trips. We did just enough moon missions so it didn't look like all we wanted to do was touch down then never return.
And so I fear the same thing with a program to go back to the moon or to Mars. If it is national pride that drives us, we risk getting there too soon, spending too much money, then stopping because we aren't willing to spend that much money for undefined research goals.
To tie this back to my other post about the Shuttle, I think research needs to be our main priority. Otherwise, we spend too much just for bragging rights and research takes a back seat. And while we are spending all that money on bragging rights, we could have better spent that money on current defined research opportunities that are more within our reach.
My first thesis is that national pride and research, as goals for space exploration and other scientific endeavors, are not compatible but instead in conflict. To see this, we need to look no further than the Apollo program.
I think it is clear that the Apollo program was developed to compete and win a space war against the Soviet Union. And what ensued was an ambitious and dangerous program that was ultimately successful at achieving its goal - landing on the moon before the Soviets.
But since national pride was the main goal, research tagged along but took a back seat. While on the moon, we did conduct some experiments. But it was clear that we were there for pride and once we were there, we didn't have long or medium term research goals. After all, our goal was to get there first.
And in fact, once we achieved the main goal, the tag-along goal of research didn't justify many return trips. We did just enough moon missions so it didn't look like all we wanted to do was touch down then never return.
And so I fear the same thing with a program to go back to the moon or to Mars. If it is national pride that drives us, we risk getting there too soon, spending too much money, then stopping because we aren't willing to spend that much money for undefined research goals.
To tie this back to my other post about the Shuttle, I think research needs to be our main priority. Otherwise, we spend too much just for bragging rights and research takes a back seat. And while we are spending all that money on bragging rights, we could have better spent that money on current defined research opportunities that are more within our reach.
Book Report: Legacy of Ashes (Part 1)
I am currently reading Legacy of Ashes by Tim Weiner. While I usually wait until I have finished the book, I want to comment now lest I lose my thoughts.
First, let me say that the book - a history of the CIA - does move through each event pretty quickly. This means that we often have to trust the author's version of events because the details supporting him are somewhat slim and could be cherry-picked.
I recognize why the author did this - he has a lot of ground to cover. The alternative would be a massive three volume type series - something Robert Caro-esqe. In other words, something I probably wouldn't read.
It also means that to the extent that you want more information on an event (like the Cuban Missile Crisis for example) you should go somewhere just for that (like One Minute to Midnight).
Now, what I really wanted to comment on though is the picture that Wiener is giving us of the early CIA (though it is pretty clear he is setting us up to tell us that things haven't changed). I have only gotten through the Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations (including some info on Kennedy's assassination), but things look really bad so far.
The CIA is portrayed as an organization that is focused on covert operations to impose our will on other governments and prevent the spread of communism at the expense of intelligence gathering. Unfortunately, the CIA is mostly incompetent and mostly because it doesn't actually understand the places it is working on because it doesn't have any good intelligence.
And when it does succeed, the consequences long term are disastrous (i.e. Iran) because the policy was poorly thought through. It is also completely unaccountable; it lies or withholds information from the president (especially when it comes to their failures) and of course is not required to provide much information to Congress. So often it is making foreign policy on its own.
To the extent that this was / is true, it is appalling and terrifying. But I don't think anything can be done about it. There is a general view by the public that the US should have an organization that conducts covert operations and gathers intelligence to "protect our interests" and that we don't need to know about what it does. That is not a good recipe for good outcomes. And Legacy of Ashes shows us this.
First, let me say that the book - a history of the CIA - does move through each event pretty quickly. This means that we often have to trust the author's version of events because the details supporting him are somewhat slim and could be cherry-picked.
I recognize why the author did this - he has a lot of ground to cover. The alternative would be a massive three volume type series - something Robert Caro-esqe. In other words, something I probably wouldn't read.
It also means that to the extent that you want more information on an event (like the Cuban Missile Crisis for example) you should go somewhere just for that (like One Minute to Midnight).
Now, what I really wanted to comment on though is the picture that Wiener is giving us of the early CIA (though it is pretty clear he is setting us up to tell us that things haven't changed). I have only gotten through the Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations (including some info on Kennedy's assassination), but things look really bad so far.
The CIA is portrayed as an organization that is focused on covert operations to impose our will on other governments and prevent the spread of communism at the expense of intelligence gathering. Unfortunately, the CIA is mostly incompetent and mostly because it doesn't actually understand the places it is working on because it doesn't have any good intelligence.
And when it does succeed, the consequences long term are disastrous (i.e. Iran) because the policy was poorly thought through. It is also completely unaccountable; it lies or withholds information from the president (especially when it comes to their failures) and of course is not required to provide much information to Congress. So often it is making foreign policy on its own.
To the extent that this was / is true, it is appalling and terrifying. But I don't think anything can be done about it. There is a general view by the public that the US should have an organization that conducts covert operations and gathers intelligence to "protect our interests" and that we don't need to know about what it does. That is not a good recipe for good outcomes. And Legacy of Ashes shows us this.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Recommended Books: Update
You might notice that I made changes to my recommended books. I took off the following books: Autobiography of Malcom X, Game Change, and Three Cups of Tea. Here is why.
Three Cups of Tea: Greg Mortenson has come under fire recently, facing allegations of spending more than half of the nonprofit's money on promoting his book, building fewer schools than claimed, and no obvious revenue coming to the nonprofit from his books. It seems his nonprofit could avoid this with a lot more transparency. Or maybe that would show the allegations to be true.
Also, it is alleged some of his story about coming down the mountain and finding the village where he would build the first school might not be completely accurate. Anyway, for now, I can't recommend the book. I still believe that Afghanistan needs more schools, and that the sort of cultural sensitivity that Mortenson showed is necessary. Hopefully the nonprofit - and Mortenson, too - will find its way through this. Stay tuned.
The Autobiography of Malcom X: There is a new biography of him (Malcolm X: A Life of Reinvention by Manning Marable) that is probably more comprehensive and objective. Until I read that book, I can't recommend it. And in the meantime, I can no longer recommend the Autobiography (which I liked because it gave a different perspective on Malcom X though it may have been a flawed book).
Game Change: It just seems dated at this point. If you haven't read it yet, I'm not sure you'll want to at this point.
Three Cups of Tea: Greg Mortenson has come under fire recently, facing allegations of spending more than half of the nonprofit's money on promoting his book, building fewer schools than claimed, and no obvious revenue coming to the nonprofit from his books. It seems his nonprofit could avoid this with a lot more transparency. Or maybe that would show the allegations to be true.
Also, it is alleged some of his story about coming down the mountain and finding the village where he would build the first school might not be completely accurate. Anyway, for now, I can't recommend the book. I still believe that Afghanistan needs more schools, and that the sort of cultural sensitivity that Mortenson showed is necessary. Hopefully the nonprofit - and Mortenson, too - will find its way through this. Stay tuned.
The Autobiography of Malcom X: There is a new biography of him (Malcolm X: A Life of Reinvention by Manning Marable) that is probably more comprehensive and objective. Until I read that book, I can't recommend it. And in the meantime, I can no longer recommend the Autobiography (which I liked because it gave a different perspective on Malcom X though it may have been a flawed book).
Game Change: It just seems dated at this point. If you haven't read it yet, I'm not sure you'll want to at this point.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
To President Obama: I Give Up
I have officially given up on President Obama. His main priority when taking office was / should have been the economy and he is utterly failing at it. And to make matters worse, he refuses to even fight for the right policies.
I have been reading a lot of articles, posts, quotes and columns by economists (from Paul Krugman and Brad Delong to Bruce Bartlett and Ben Bernake) and I think there is broad agreement that monetary policy will be mostly ineffective (as interest rates are near zero and things like quantitative easing have made little difference) and that austerity is a bad idea. Both government cuts and tax increases will make an already bad situation - 9% unemployment - worse. If monetary policy won't work and austerity is a bad idea, I draw the conclusion (after having been convinced by Krugman and Delong) that the government should engage in stimulus spending.
President Obama however has decided to take a few positions that are counter to all of this. First, he is parroting the absurd position that the right first started whereby if we get government spending under control - ie budget cuts and revenue increases, business confidence will increase and the economy will rebound. To be clear, business confidence isn't meaningless, but to think that we are at 9 percent unemployment because of confidence is absurd.
Second, the president is suggesting that current high unemployment is structural - ie there is nothing in the short term that we can do about it. This is clearly him setting expectations low hoping to avoid blame. In fact, in the Twitter Town Hall, Obama said he wished he had known how bad the economy was going to be so he could have changed expectations. That's too bad, because I wish I had a president who would have done more to improve the economy if he had known how bad it was going to be.
Obama needs to be saying two things over and over again. One, we need more stimulus. Two, he should put his foot down and say there will be no budget cuts in the next two to three years - until the economy has improved. There is no need to get our budgets under control in the short term (bond rates and inflation are low) and in fact it will hurt us more than it will help us. This second point he has said, but rather meekly so that no one believes he will actually put his foot down on this.
I know there are a lot of people who say that Obama could not get a stimulus through this Congress. I don't disagree with that. But he could have at least made the case, and then when he didn't get it, he could have blamed the radical Republicans. Instead, he'll be able to say that he accomplished all he set out to accomplish - a modest $787 billion stimulus (half of what was needed and not spent well at that - but Obama tried to say that it would be enough) and a budget deal to restore confidence. And when the economy doesn't improve, he'll have nothing to say. He passed the policies he wanted but still unemployment remained high.
Now, at the moment, I can see how Obama is being smart with the short term politics. To moderates, he looks reasonable and is making the Republicans look crazy. That is all well and good. But I don't think that will make up for the fact that his policies were not successful at fixing his biggest problem when he came into office - the economy. But even if it works, it will work at the expense of the economy. He'll win an election but unemployment will remain stubbornly high.
President Obama at one point said he would rather be a really good one term president than a mediocre two-term president. We now know that was a lie; what he is doing now is political positioning at the expense of the economy. And he is doing it to win reelection. We thought we were electing someone who would inspire and fight for what he believes in. Instead, we got someone who fights for what he already thinks he can achieve and nothing more.
The bottom line is that I'll still vote for him - after all, Romney's policies would be even more conservative - but I don't think he deserves to be reelected. He is failing on the biggest issue facing the country.
I have been reading a lot of articles, posts, quotes and columns by economists (from Paul Krugman and Brad Delong to Bruce Bartlett and Ben Bernake) and I think there is broad agreement that monetary policy will be mostly ineffective (as interest rates are near zero and things like quantitative easing have made little difference) and that austerity is a bad idea. Both government cuts and tax increases will make an already bad situation - 9% unemployment - worse. If monetary policy won't work and austerity is a bad idea, I draw the conclusion (after having been convinced by Krugman and Delong) that the government should engage in stimulus spending.
President Obama however has decided to take a few positions that are counter to all of this. First, he is parroting the absurd position that the right first started whereby if we get government spending under control - ie budget cuts and revenue increases, business confidence will increase and the economy will rebound. To be clear, business confidence isn't meaningless, but to think that we are at 9 percent unemployment because of confidence is absurd.
Second, the president is suggesting that current high unemployment is structural - ie there is nothing in the short term that we can do about it. This is clearly him setting expectations low hoping to avoid blame. In fact, in the Twitter Town Hall, Obama said he wished he had known how bad the economy was going to be so he could have changed expectations. That's too bad, because I wish I had a president who would have done more to improve the economy if he had known how bad it was going to be.
Obama needs to be saying two things over and over again. One, we need more stimulus. Two, he should put his foot down and say there will be no budget cuts in the next two to three years - until the economy has improved. There is no need to get our budgets under control in the short term (bond rates and inflation are low) and in fact it will hurt us more than it will help us. This second point he has said, but rather meekly so that no one believes he will actually put his foot down on this.
I know there are a lot of people who say that Obama could not get a stimulus through this Congress. I don't disagree with that. But he could have at least made the case, and then when he didn't get it, he could have blamed the radical Republicans. Instead, he'll be able to say that he accomplished all he set out to accomplish - a modest $787 billion stimulus (half of what was needed and not spent well at that - but Obama tried to say that it would be enough) and a budget deal to restore confidence. And when the economy doesn't improve, he'll have nothing to say. He passed the policies he wanted but still unemployment remained high.
Now, at the moment, I can see how Obama is being smart with the short term politics. To moderates, he looks reasonable and is making the Republicans look crazy. That is all well and good. But I don't think that will make up for the fact that his policies were not successful at fixing his biggest problem when he came into office - the economy. But even if it works, it will work at the expense of the economy. He'll win an election but unemployment will remain stubbornly high.
President Obama at one point said he would rather be a really good one term president than a mediocre two-term president. We now know that was a lie; what he is doing now is political positioning at the expense of the economy. And he is doing it to win reelection. We thought we were electing someone who would inspire and fight for what he believes in. Instead, we got someone who fights for what he already thinks he can achieve and nothing more.
The bottom line is that I'll still vote for him - after all, Romney's policies would be even more conservative - but I don't think he deserves to be reelected. He is failing on the biggest issue facing the country.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)