So I've been thinking about the long term prospects for the economy - but through a political lens. As I see our economic woes (as they exist right now we have a stagnant economy - if the Eurozone collapses, we'll have a whole other set of problems), we need much more action to really get a recovery going. We need either (or both) a big stimulus or more aggressive monetary efforts including allowing changing inflation expectations until unemployment decreases.
But given our political situation, neither of those options seems likely. President Obama is not going to get much if any stimulus. And the fed is stuck doing things that would have seemed wildly aggressive five years ago but are now far too feeble with little indication that it will get bold (truth be told, the fed is still acting like it has one mandate - inflation - when it in fact has two - inflation and employment).
Worse still, with a dragging economy, Obama is unlikely in my book to be reelected (nor do I think he particularly deserves it - he decided, or at least acquiesced, to focus on balancing the budget while unemployment was still above 9 percent). And with a conservative president, we are even less likely to get any stimulus. Maybe we could get a tax cut, though with Republicans pretending to be fiscally responsible, we might not even get that. We haven't so far, as Republicans are happy to let the economy suffer if it means better electoral prospects and denying Obama any victories.
So this should mean that the economy will be stuck for the next five years (ie lost decade). What has got me thinking however is the possibility that the economy does start to really recover sometime in 2013 or 2014 even absent any intervention by then-President Romney or the federal reserve. If that happens, what does that say about liberal prognostications on the economy?
It would at least allow Republicans to say that the best medicine was to do nothing. But is that what it really means? Or does it mean that the economy will / would have eventually recover(ed) and that Republican obstructions slowed the recovery? I would assume the later, but it is difficult to prove. And it certainly decreases the urgency of liberal action. In other words, if the recovery will happen in five years without help, is it worth it / necessary to do something in year two - especially if some effects (construction programs) might take a year or two to show an effect?
Clearly I don't have any answers right now - especially since the question is hypothetical and based on Obama losing and Romney doing nothing (short of rolling back some regulations). But it is something I want to be prepared to think about.
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Gingrich v. Romney
Dear Conservative,
I see that in the latest, and probably last, iteration of the your anyone-but-Romney fickleness, Newt Gingrich has surged in the polls. In the past, I have avoided writing on the newest surge because I assumed the person would crash. There are a lot of reasons why Gingrich might (money, staff, erratic behavior, skeletons), but the right is desperate, and he might actually stick around.
Since I think I am pretty good at thinking like a conservative, I am going to talk through with you the decision you might face: Romney versus Gingrich.
First, I want to acknowledge that you face a difficult task. Between the two, there is only one similarity I can think of: Both candidates have a history of supporting positions that are now unsupportable - namely carbon cap and trade and health care individual mandate.
Other than that, the candidates are pretty different. Romney is perceived as a moderate that has flipped to win the primary - which makes him untrustworthy. However, he is also seen as competent and probably a good manager; his business successes and time as governor support that perception. And though he seems slippery, maybe robotic, he doesn't have any baggage around family issues that Gingrich has.
Gingrich has conservative credentials. So his flipping is perceived as erratic - or better, excused because others in the party have flipped (ie Heritage Foundation). He is seen as an ideas man, though maybe too wildly seeking new ideas and not grounded enough to manage an administration well. And though he is smart, some of his ideas and theories are not well thought-out. Also, his history with his wives shows a major lack of compassion, loyalty and moral decency - and his timing with the impeachment reeks of hypocrisy (though you probably don't care about that - better to go after a liberal like Clinton hypocritically than to be consistent and therefore not impeach a Democratic president).
Finally, and perhaps the worst unless he can continue to disingenuously sweet talk his way out of it, is his lobbying. I don't think people will continue to buy that Gingrich was only providing history lessons for millions of dollars. And, if you are getting paid to support an idea, even if you would like the idea anyway, it is still lobbying.
In looking at the two options, I think you, dear conservative, have a difficult choice. A robotic but competent former governor whose core positions and values seem open for change with the winds or an erratic but full of ideas former legislator and lobbyist who lacks compassion and loyalty. I would probably go with the one more likely to be a good manager. But then again, maybe having loyalty to conservative principles is more important. And despite his erraticness sometimes, Gingrich is better on that front.
I see that in the latest, and probably last, iteration of the your anyone-but-Romney fickleness, Newt Gingrich has surged in the polls. In the past, I have avoided writing on the newest surge because I assumed the person would crash. There are a lot of reasons why Gingrich might (money, staff, erratic behavior, skeletons), but the right is desperate, and he might actually stick around.
Since I think I am pretty good at thinking like a conservative, I am going to talk through with you the decision you might face: Romney versus Gingrich.
First, I want to acknowledge that you face a difficult task. Between the two, there is only one similarity I can think of: Both candidates have a history of supporting positions that are now unsupportable - namely carbon cap and trade and health care individual mandate.
Other than that, the candidates are pretty different. Romney is perceived as a moderate that has flipped to win the primary - which makes him untrustworthy. However, he is also seen as competent and probably a good manager; his business successes and time as governor support that perception. And though he seems slippery, maybe robotic, he doesn't have any baggage around family issues that Gingrich has.
Gingrich has conservative credentials. So his flipping is perceived as erratic - or better, excused because others in the party have flipped (ie Heritage Foundation). He is seen as an ideas man, though maybe too wildly seeking new ideas and not grounded enough to manage an administration well. And though he is smart, some of his ideas and theories are not well thought-out. Also, his history with his wives shows a major lack of compassion, loyalty and moral decency - and his timing with the impeachment reeks of hypocrisy (though you probably don't care about that - better to go after a liberal like Clinton hypocritically than to be consistent and therefore not impeach a Democratic president).
Finally, and perhaps the worst unless he can continue to disingenuously sweet talk his way out of it, is his lobbying. I don't think people will continue to buy that Gingrich was only providing history lessons for millions of dollars. And, if you are getting paid to support an idea, even if you would like the idea anyway, it is still lobbying.
In looking at the two options, I think you, dear conservative, have a difficult choice. A robotic but competent former governor whose core positions and values seem open for change with the winds or an erratic but full of ideas former legislator and lobbyist who lacks compassion and loyalty. I would probably go with the one more likely to be a good manager. But then again, maybe having loyalty to conservative principles is more important. And despite his erraticness sometimes, Gingrich is better on that front.
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