These are the Values Voters?

So let me get this straight - Republicans think that tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans is so important that we don't need to identify savings to offset it. But a bill to support people that worked at the World Trade Center following the collapse is not that important and instead, for that, we need to know how we will pay for it. To put it even more simply: tax cuts for wealthy is important, health care for 9/11 responders, not that important. Nice values.

I Don't Hate It

So the Times is reporting an agreement between Obama and GOP on extending the Bush tax cuts - all of them - and aid to lower income Americans including further tax breaks. I think it is a fine compromise and a sign that maybe our government will not completely shut down during the next two years.

However, Obama has been too silent for too long. I completely agree with Frank Rich that Obama needs to articulate his positions, and do it frequently, even if the public is likely to disagree with him. Instead, we have no idea where he stands - or only a vague idea. I envision for him a moment similar to the end of The American President, when President Shepard finally takes a principled stand.

But in reality, Obama should be in front of cameras all the time - so much that we get sick of him. For someone in an office with significant control over the agenda, he seems to cede it to the Republicans. I see myself returning to this theme frequently over the next two years.

But coming back to this issue, Obama and Democrats need some message discipline and they need to repeat over and over again that Republicans went into this negotiation looking to protect the richest Americans and Democrats went in looking to protect middle and lower class Americans and Americans that are out of work. They need to hammer that home the way Republicans managed to hammer every one of their messages home over the last year.

If I weren't so tired, I would be screaming this message. Instead, you'll have to trust me when I say how frustrated I am that this isn't happening.

Politics Night: Wikileaks

We had our third politics night on Tuesday (11/30/2010). We discussed Wikileaks. I will summarize my position. Others can add theirs in the comments if they so choose.

Let me start by saying two things about state secrets that do not directly relate to Wikileaks. First, I think people in government abuse state secrets privileges (see my post on Claim of Privilege). So I am not a zealot on protecting classified documents. And related to that, I think there can be really important instances when leaked documents tell the public what they need to know but the government has been hiding from them.

Now, as to Wikileaks, I don't think that this last release was necessary nor has it been helpful at all. As many commentators have already said, the release was gossip and nothing more. And that gossip hasn't told the public anything useful, but it has potentially hurt our ability to work with partners like Russia, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.

Governments should be able to talk privately. Of course, in the end, their decisions, and the information that went into making those decisions should be made public. But we don't need to know all private conversations.

I don't remember the previous releases too well, except that in general they didn't say a whole lot that we didn't already know. I think there were certain events that we didn't know about, but overall, there didn't seem to be a message that the government was hiding that came out in the releases.

I believe that the reason the Wikileaks information hasn't been that helpful in general stems from Julian Assange's motives. If we are to believe him, his goal is to make everything government does public. If we are to believe others, he just wants to embarrass the US. Either way, these intentions have lead, and will continue to lead to, unedited information dumps that are mostly useless but sometimes harmful.

When someone's intention is to highlight wrongdoing or bad decision-making, then we are likely to get information that furthers those goals. But when one's motives come from an absurd notion about democracy, or just a hatred of the US, then we will get a lot of information that is not helpful for the public to know and in some cases is harmful.

Update:
One of the Politics Night faithful pointed me to a debate between Glenn Greenwald and Steven Aftergood on Democracy Now. Also, so that Julian Assange can speak for himself, here is a link to some of the interviews with him recently.

Shame HuffPo

While I mostly blame cable news for ruining constructive debate in our country, there are definitely on-line news sources that are doing their part. I have seen Huffington Post a number of times, and it always enrages me, present a headline and even a description of someone's talking points that is incorrect and needlessly inflamatory.

In this example, HuffPo says that Juan Williams is saying unemployment benefits weaken regular work values. But in watching the video, I don't see Williams saying that at all. He says that when a person chooses to stay home instead of work, it erodes their work values. And while he might acknowledge that some people are incentivized against working by the extension of unemployment benefits, I don't see him accepting that argument at large.

I know that as Democrats we like to think that only Fox News distorts what people say. But clearly, that isn't the case.

Does the Punishment Fit the Crime?

Tom Delay
I’m not sure how I feel about the Delay conviction. In fact, I think I agree with parts of this Wall Street Journal editorial.

Tom Delay certainly seems to have violated the spirit of the campaign finance rules. But it seems like he found a way around them so that he couldn't be convicted of actually violating them.

But I am not convinced that he is guilty of money laundering; at least I don’t think his crime fits in with the purpose (or spirit) of the money laundering law. But if there are experience lawyers out there that feel otherwise, feel free to convince me.

On a related note, I discovered a really good blog on New York State politics the day it shut down. Oh well. Here is a really good post on Joe Bruno's legal issues.

Charles Rangel
I think the Rangel case is interesting if not a little frustrating. I agree with the people that say his crimes don't seem to fit with previous censures. However, his crimes seem worse than behavior that received reprimands.

And as bad as Rangel's actions were, I can't believe for one minute that he is the only one of the 535 members that have used their stationary for private fund-raising or forgotten to count rental income from second or third houses in their taxes. (The rent stabilized apartments situation is probably unique to New Yorkers.)

Basically, I feel that the House is making an example out of Rangel - Democrats to pretend they are tough on ethics violations and Republicans to make a Democrat look bad. But really, there are probably other examples of similar bad behavior that are missed or ignored. In other words, censure only seems strong because of how bad they probably are in cracking down on all violators.

To conclude, to the extent that justice was served in these two examples, it was imperfect justice. Maybe that is all we can hope for.

If I were President: Budget Deficit

I played the NY Times' Budget Puzzle. Here is my first attempt. I fixed the deficit with 43% tax increases and 57% spending cuts. Again, this was just a first cut. I basically went through and checked things I could live with. But I didn't do a great job of comparing all of the options and only choosing the least painful ones. I was surprised how easy it was. Of course, capping Medicare really helped (saving $562 billion!).

It is also surprising how many reasonable things I did not do, which shows that there is wiggle room. I did not choose to decrease the size of the Navy nor reduce Iraq and Afghanistan troop levels to 60,000 or (gasp) 30,000. I did not increase the Medicare eligibility age or the Social Security retirement age. I choose a moderate estate tax proposal (Obama's instead of Kyl's or Clinton's). But since I did choose the millionaire's tax, some of the things listed above could offset that if it is unreasonable.

CEO Pay

A colleague and I were debating about CEO compensation. We were actually talking about the music industry and my colleague suggested that the decrease in revenues could be mitigated if the CEO took a pay cut.

My response, and I am confident that I am right about this, was that a cut in the CEO's salary would have little effect on any companies' overall profit picture. I offered him, and now I offer you dear reader, this challenge: Find me a CEO that makes in salary more than 0.1% of the companies' revenue.

In fact, I'll even give you a head start. This page on the AFL/CIO website lists CEO salaries. Once you have that, you can find the companies' revenue by searching the company name and "annual report".

I am willing to bet though that all CEO salaries will be well below the 0.1% of revenue. In fact, I looked at one random company today and found that the CEO was making 0.03% of revenue.

With salaries this low as a percentage of revenue, cuts to their salaries will not help with budget problems. If the company sees a decrease in revenue of 3%, having the CEO work for free will only cover 1% of that gap. Therefore, even that big cut will only be symbolic.

Now, that isn't to say that symbolic gestures are meaningless. I do believe that symbols can be very important. A salary that is 0.03% of revenue can still be considered obscene and a big cut can send an important message. So I am not suggesting that it shouldn't happen in a company in difficult times. I am just saying that it will do very little for the companies fiscal problems.

Some Music and Some Econ 101

This weekend, I had a pleasant debate about the music industry and downloading of music for free. My overall point was that downloading music is and should be illegal and the government should work to increase enforcement. While I do think the record industry has been slow to evolve with new technology, I don't think stealing music is a good (moral or effective) way to force the industry to change.

Although I do like to recap arguments on my blog sometimes - with the intention of synthesizing my thoughts, not to get the last word - this is not the point of this post. As I was falling asleep last night thinking about the debate, I realized a way to better show a fear I have with the illegal downloading of music - through a supply and demand graph!

One of the points I made was that in the market place, consumers have the choice to show their dissatisfaction with a product by refusing to purchase it. I argued that it gives the consumer an unfair advantage in the marketplace if they can get the product without paying for it (fairness within a transaction is necessary for a well-functioning market system - I can explain further if anyone wants me to). This will drive the price down to an unsustainable level.


Here is where the economics comes in. For a given product, consumers are willing to pay a certain price to have that product as opposed to not having it. That price is shown by the original equilibrium, P1, Q1. When a consumer can choose to have the product without paying for it, or have the product and pay for it, their price is no longer the value of the product, but the value of feeling good about how they obtained the product. Clearly that price will be much less than the previous price.

What you see in this scenario is a shift in the demand curve from D1 to D2. And when the demand curve shifts back, you see a lower equilibrium price, but more importantly, a lower quantity. This means that in this scenario, prices decrease and less music is produced. And I don't think anyone wants that.

A colleague of mine theorized that getting free music mitigates - possibly completely - this shift in the demand curve. He thinks that getting free music leads the consumer to purchase new music. I think this argument is weak and an attempt at justification. Consumers are not so irrational that they spend the same amount of money for the same quantity of music whether there is the option to steal music or not. And if it mitigates but not completely, then all we are talking about is magnitude - but the direction of the effect is still the same.

I also think a musician should have the ability to choose to make that investment instead of consumers forcing that situation on them.

Anyway, enjoy the flash back to Econ 101. And feel free to challenge my model or my assumptions.

My Ignorance of Historians

In my post on Definitive Biographies, I remarked that I was skeptical of Jon Meacham's book on Andrew Jackson because he is a journalist and not a historian. I am embarrassed about my ignorance. I was right that he is not a historian but I had no idea how many of the great popular history writers are also not historians.

I only recently learned this fact that many of my favorite / respected authors of history do not have PhD's in history. David McCollough only has a BA in English Literature. Ron Chernow also has only a bachelor's degree (granted, I haven't read his stuff, but his book on Alexander Hamilton is on the top of my history list). Robert Caro has a degree in English. And Doris Kearns Goodwin has a PhD but in Government.

This article in the New York Review of Books, which by the way is a glowing review of Chernow's George Washington biography, explains this development over the last 50 years or so. It seems that historians are busy specializing in very specific issues and are mostly debating each other. While this is valuable for debates in history, it is usually not very accessible to a non-historian audience.

So Jon Meacham, I owe you an apology. And when I make time to read more biographies, I'll be sure to check out your book American Lion.

What A Liberal Would Have Done

I saw this post by James Galbraith on what Obama should have done to stem the financial crisis.

Law, policy and politics all pointed in one direction: turn the systemically dangerous banks over to Sheila Bair and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Insure the depositors, replace the management, fire the lobbyists, audit the books, prosecute the frauds, and restructure and downsize the institutions. The financial system would have been cleaned up. And the big bankers would have been beaten as a political force.

Team Obama did none of these things. Instead they announced "stress tests," plainly designed so as to obscure the banks' true condition. They pressured the Federal Accounting Standards Board to permit the banks to ignore the market value of their toxic assets. Management stayed in place. They prosecuted no one. The Fed cut the cost of funds to zero. The President justified all this by repeating, many times, that the goal of policy was "to get credit flowing again."

The banks threw a party. Reported profits soared, as did bonuses. With free funds, the banks could make money with no risk, by lending back to the Treasury. They could boom the stock market. They could make a mint on proprietary trading. Their losses on mortgages were concealed -- until the fact came out that they'd so neglected basic mortgage paperwork, as to be unable to foreclose in many cases, without the help of forged documents and perjured affidavits.

Maybe it wouldn't have been as easy as it sounds here, but the fact is that the bail-out plan was not successful and has not gotten us out of the woods. One of the reasons banks are able to report profits again is because much of their balance sheets are not properly valued. We see this with single-family mortgages, and we definitely see it with the multifamily stock.

The solution so far has been to be easy on banks, lest they fail. But while Obama is going easy, state and local governments - and homeowners and tenants - are paying the price. All so that we didn't have to take over the banks and be accused of being socialists. Except that happened anyway.

What Kind of Teacher?

This post is going to focus on how we recruit the best teachers. President Bush thought all we needed to do was make prospective teachers get degrees and certifications and take tests. This might require decent training and prevent some bad teachers, but it does not in itself recruit good teachers. Instead, we need to focus on incentives that would attract and retain more of the best and the brightest. Teaching can be an exciting and rewarding endeavor. But for public schools, we would need to change some things first.

Salary
Of course salary is a big issue. Granted, teachers, after a couple decades of service, do pretty well. However, I do think it is less than other occupations where workers have similar credentials. I also think though that salary isn't the only thing.

Flexibility
I am confident that most of us highly value flexibility in our jobs. We don't want rote tasks dictated to us from on high. Having direction is good. But no flexibility is bad. With teaching, the more strict curricula become, the less likely people are going to be to want to teach. Teachers should be told generally what the students are expected to learn, and they should be free to operate within that. We lose central control, but we would recruit better teachers. This is one of the reasons talented teachers choose independent / private schools; they have flexibility over curriculum.

Responsibility
With flexibility should come responsibility. A fairly recent David Brooks column has this quote that I agree with:

"What’s needed, Howard argues, is a great streamlining. He’s not calling for deregulation. It’s about giving teachers, doctors and officials the power to actually make decisions and then holding them accountable. Some of their choices will be wrong, Howard acknowledges, but it is better to live in an imperfect world of individual responsibility than it is to live within a dehumanizing legal thicket that seeks to eliminate risk through a tangle of micromanaging statutes."

For teachers, this specifically means eliminating tenure and using test scores and a lot of other measures to evaluate a teachers effectiveness.

Grow and Learn New Things
There are two other things people value in a job: the ability to gain new responsibilities and the ability to learn new things. For the former, there are some opportunities for teachers - move to administration or become a team leader / mentor. But that is about it. So if we want to attract and retain smart people in teaching, we should be heavy on the later. Staff development for teachers is not only good to keep teachers' knowledge up to date, but serves to recruit people to teaching that want to be lifelong learners. We should be prepared to spend a lot more on staff development.

What We Have Now
Instead of the above benefits, we have a system whose main attractions are summer vacations and job security. And when those are the main benefits, you don't attract the best and brightest.

The point isn't to disparage teachers. I do think that most of our teachers are capable, smart, and dedicated. The goal though is to replace the ones at the bottom of the curve with more people at the top of the curve. We can only do this by changing the incentives on the margins.

Many really smart people work in jobs where there is little security because they are confident in their ability and believe that they will have a boss will be reasonable and make the right decision in most cases. Teaching could be the same way. As for summers off - I would not argue that teachers do not deserve it. I just think that right now, absent incentives for more really good teachers, it attracts people to teaching for the wrong reasons.

I will say, and I think I have said it before, that the unions are a serious impediment. In other occupations as well, they go out of their way to protect people from management at all costs. But this means you are not rewarded for good performance and not punished for poor performance. Everyone moves along in a uniform system. This protects everyone, but does nothing to attract the best we can have.

Economy: Lost Decade?

I'll admit that after Obama's election, I mostly sat back and let his administration do their work. I didn't think too hard about whether they were getting things right. Only now that some of their plans - most notably on the economy - am I really trying to understand what went wrong and why.

The person I have been looking to the most is Paul Krugman, but I have lately been expanding my horizons to see what the right thinks (mainly through WSJ and Financial Times). It seems to me that almost everyone agrees the government should do something to help the economy - whether it be through monetary or fiscal policy. Unfortunately, it seems that monetary policy is not very useful at the moment as interest rates are up against the lower bound (ie cannot go lower than zero and are near zero now).

That leaves fiscal policy. As we know however, there is no public support for fiscal stimulus and there are no leaders willing to try to change minds and convince people that fiscal stimulus is necessary. Bernake is unwilling, as is Obama.

I will admit, as Obama should, that the original fiscal stimulus was imperfect - and not only because it was too small. Shovel-ready didn't pan out as planned and Davis-Bacon requirements slowed things down. Plus, the stimulus seemed to replace state and local spending cuts, negating the stimulus effect.

I had assumed it was common knowledge that we got out of the Great Depression with stimulus spending - ie the war - but there seem to be many that think otherwise and are doing a good job of convincing the public of that. (And if you wonder why war spending is a better stimulus, I would argue that it is because we mobilize war spending very quickly and rarely argue about whether it is too much spending or too little so long as the cause is just.)

If I am understanding the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times correctly, they also think that fiscal policy might help but is politically not viable and monetary policy (QE2 - ie Fed will buy long term debt instead of short term debt) will be mostly ineffective.

Only non-economists are saying that less government spending will allow businesses to spend more and that will get us out of the recession. This isn't the answer because businesses are facing surpluses of their products, and only consumer spending will clear those surpluses and cause businesses to re-start production and hire again. Fiscal stimulus is our only way to achieve that.

If fiscal stimulus is a no-go and monetary policy will not be helpful, what is the outcome? Unfortunately, probably a lost decade.

Casualties in Iraq

The Economist has a graph showing the casualties in Iraq based on WikiLeaks. Graphs like this are really good at showing trends - in this case showing how bad it really was in 2006.

Deficit Panel

The chairs of Obama's deficit reduction panel have made their recommendations, and of course they have hit some nerves. Included in the list of strategies are eliminating the tax exemption for health care plans and interest on home mortgages as well as increasing the age to collect social security. I can't really see either of the tax break changes happening - although I do like the later one (mortgage interest) if it is phased in.

I was frustrated by Republicans on the campaign trail (although honestly no more than I have been with Democrats, including Obama, on the campaign) and their vague and useless talk about decreasing spending. Any meaningful decreases will need to cut services for important and widely-used programs. (For a really good sense of the cost of programs, see this "tax receipt".)

Now at least Republicans will have to weigh in. Do they want to increase the age for social security benefits (unpopular but maybe necessary)? Do they want to eliminate popular tax breaks in the name of decreasing overall taxes and simplifying the tax code? We'll wait and see.

Book Report: Omnivore's Dilemma

First, let me say that Omnivore's Dilemma by Michael Pollan isn't a perfect book and most of the information is now common knowledge at least to those interested in food policy (though I think it was somewhat groundbreaking at the time it was written - or at the very least reached a new audience). We know that corn is subsidized and driving an unhealthy system where food is heavily processed an animals are treated poorly.

Even if you know most of this information though, this book is still one of the best books on the subject. It is well-organized, well-written, and thorough. And unless you are an expert, there are things you will learn. I thought I had a good general idea of our food system from reading articles (some by Pollan himself) and talking to friends. But there was enough new information it the book to keep me interested.

There were two parts of the book though that were new to me and were worth reading. First, his description of Polyface Farms was great. To see how an ultra sustainable farm can work is amazing. Each part of the farm supports the other parts. And what was truly great was that this type of farm requires a lot of thought and energy. It seems that the industrialization and mechanization of our farms has created a job that is less mentally stimulating than it used to be - not that smart people don't do it, but that so much is uniform and planned. A farm like this could in theory keep smart people from leaving the farm to more exciting jobs. It also shows how smart nature is and how easily things can work if you let nature do what it wants to do.

The second part that was really good and worth reading was Pollan's good discussion of utilitarian animal rights. As I have thought more about animal rights, I haven't always known what I meant or what I wanted. I know animals are not humans. They do not and should not have the same rights and get the same treatment. But I do not think therefore that animals have no rights and are entitled to no consideration about there well-being.

Pollan's description of Peter Singer's philosophy really hit home with me. While I knew animals shouldn't suffer unnecessary pain, I didn't know anything beyond that. Basically, Peter Singer believes that animals and humans should have equal consideration of their interests. Humans interests are different from a chickens interests, but both should be considered. Humans want shelter, health, freedom, and a good job. Chickens want to roost, nest, and have space to move around. Therefore we seek not only to see that chickens do not suffer, but that they are able to do the things a chicken wants to do.

Free range chickens - actual free range, not the definition created by the agribusinesses - seek to give this to chickens. And the same goes for grass-fed beef. Cows want to eat grass - that is what ruminants do. If we care about animal rights, we should let them do this.

I Don't Eat Meat... or Fish

I wrote a post last year about how I had drastically cut back on my meat consumption. Maybe it doesn't surprise anyone, but I have now entirely cut meat and fish out of my diet. Before I go into my reasons, I want to be clear that I write this post to explain my choice but not to proselytize. I don't think everyone can or should be vegetarian. But based on what I know, I have decided that I have to.

When I last wrote about this, I had said that I have cut back on my meat consumption because the way we consume meat in this country in unsustainable; there is intense pollution, significant contribution to greenhouse gasses, and animal suffering due to our current meat consumption practices. I still feel that cutting back on meat and purchasing from sustainable businesses is a great way to deal with these problems.

To be honest, I ended up becoming effectively vegetarian before I had decided that it was a moral necessity for me. The only place that I was eating meat at the time closed for about six months (fire), and during that time I ate no meat. So I realized I could and therefore should stop eating meat altogether.

But it was during that time and since that I realized I had to continue to avoid eating meat. And the main reason was that if I cared about animal rights, I couldn't feel good about the fact that the animals I was eating lead such short lives - even if they were good lives. For example, pigs raised for meat live 8 months, beef cattle 15-20 months, and chickens two months. I don't feel happy eating a chicken that only lived for such a short time.

Now, I recognize there is a problem with my logic. These animals are entirely domestic. Without our food system, they would not likely live at all. I don't have much of a response to this except that maybe in an even more perfect world we wouldn't eat any animal until 5 years. But then again, I don't know what this might do to the quality of the meat. The bottom line though is that I don't feel good about it.

All of this doesn't address why I don't eat fish. For that, I blame scuba diving. I love diving, I love the colors, the beauty and the peace. It is such an amazing way to see nature. And so I can't abide to eat fish when they are caught in a way that destroys these ecosystems. The deteriorating conditions of our seas are well documented and gaining more widespread recognition. Until there is an international solution to the overfishing, I will not contribute to a practice that destroys one of our most valuable and beautiful resources.

So there you have it. No meat. No fish. But I still eat eggs. Only free range and local, in case you were curious.

Collision: A Review

Summary. I just watched Collision, the documentary about the debates on whether Christianity is good for the world between Hitchens and Wilson. In this post I will tell you where my beliefs are and what I thought about the two arguments. Get comfortable, this is going to be a long one.

I finally got a chance to watch Collision, the movie that shows the debates between Christopher Hitchens (Anti-theist) and Douglas Wilson (Christian). Before I get into their arguments, I should tell you where I am started from.

First, although raised in the church, I no longer believe. I just can't get myself to believe in, and then worship, a God that would allow the type of suffering that has existed and continues to exist in this world. Second, a God that was worth worshiping would prefer that I try my best to make the world better and not waste time worshiping Him. There is a relatively common message in Christian churches that a Christian should feel JOY by putting Jesus first, then others, and lastly yourself. Sorry, I think it should be different; Jesus / God should come last. As for what comes first, I don't think one can lead a healthy life that puts yourself last. I think family, others, and yourself need to be on relatively equal footing.

While that is the state of my belief, overall I do not think that Christianity is good or bad for the world by itself. I think there is beauty in the church. Listen to Robert Randolph (The Word), Ben Harper and the Blind Boys of Alabama, gospel music that has been coming out of African-American churches before we had rock and roll or even the blues, or more traditional white choirs. And there are few things more beautiful than Christmas eve candle-light service singing Silent Night and Joy to the World. Most importantly, the fellowship, good works, and humility that is formed in many churches across the country is inspiring.

But there is also ugliness. Many in the church are not humble, as God would call on them to be, but are instead righteous. They attack those around them for not being worthy and cause tremendous emotional suffering. And of course, following Jesus has lead people to war, or at least made them feel justified.

I therefore think the church, like other institutions are as beautiful and flawed as the human race is, at least from a big picture. As you will see, Hitchens got me to think of the small picture as well.

One more thing before I get started, it was a good movie, especially because it shows how real debates can happen - debates where both sides are intellectually honest, smart, and considerate. The debates take the viewer seriously and give them serious substance. This is lacking in our current cable environment.

As for the movie, I will say that I found Hitchens most convincing, probably because I started closer to his point of view. What most surprised me though was the form of Hitchens' argument. I have debated atheists before. In those arguments, the atheist seemed to say that wars were usually the fault of religions and that soon science would answer all of our questions. Neither of those points convinced me. I think just as many people have died for other reasons as for religion. And the point about science is based on faith as much as a belief in God is.

Hitchens' biggest point though is not about religion, but about Christianity. He says the vicarious redemption, whereby Christ shoulders all of our sins, is actually bad for the world. No one can and should take away our responsibility for our actions.

I found this to be rather compelling. I have always found it odd that if we are truly sorry for our actions, we will be forgiven. It is never clear how far this goes, but the possibilities seem endless. To be fair though, while I find this argument theoretically compelling, I do not get the sense that people actually use this to abdicate responsibility and therefore am not convinced how much effect it really has.

Hitchens also attacks other tenets of the faith. He questions whether love is actually possible when it is compulsory and whether it is possible to both love and fear someone. He also says that religion is our first and worst attempt to understand the world and if we had accepted Christianity's take on the world, we would not have made any scientific progress. While some people, like Wilson, can talk about science and Christianity, and Christianity can also try to keep moral frameworks as part of considerations for new science, in most cases Christianity seems to deny science.

Finally, Hitchens talks about how God is like a father that never goes away and therefore never lets us grow up. While this metaphor is convincing at first, I can't think of a way in which this is actually true. After all, my father is still around but has also let me grow up. What ways does God prevent that?

Wilson spends most of his time defending Christianity by showing how it can be a foundation for moral decision-making. That by trying to understand how God is revealing Himself, we can try to understand how we should live. There is no similar construct for atheists. If a person is bad and an atheist, he or she is not violating any principles or foundations of atheism.

The problem is that either by trying to understand how God is revealing Himself, or by trying to decide how we should behave as decent human beings, we are still exercising reason - either as applied to the Bible or to non-religious readings - to decide how to live. I just don't see any evidence that Christianity provides a better foundation than non-religious humanist writings. In each case, we pick and choose which things are better codes to live by.

Seemingly in response to Hitchens' point about vicarious redemption, Wilson says that Stalin went to his grave believing that there was no final judgment waiting for him. Wouldn't it be a better world if that wasn't the case, Wilson asks. Yes, it would be comforting if there was the fear of damnation, or justice, for terrible acts. And although we can't make Stalin believe it, maybe there are some people that behave because they fear damnation.

One point they almost touched on but didn't get into was about how God would choose between two people: a believer but not a good person and a non-believer but a good person. After all, the Bible says that whoever feeds or clothes the least among us has therefore clothed and fed God. And to them will be given the reward of Heaven. But God also says that whoever believes in Him will have eternal life. So do both people go? Or only the person that both believes and his helpful? I'm not sure I would want to share heaven with a bunch of pious but unhelpful souls. Nor would Heaven be worth going if those that helped but did not believe were not invited.

So where do I come out after seeing the movie? First, I feel I need to read their book (Is Christianity Good for the World) to make sure I got all of their arguments. Some might have been left out for brevity's sake. I'll be sure to post after I read the book.

Overall, as I said above, I was more convinced by Hitchens, at least about why not to believe in God. I think his arguments were better than any I have heard from atheists. However, I am not convinced that Christianity is bad for the world. I see the problems with vicarious redemption, but the Stalin argument was convincing as well. The bottom line is that I still think Christianity is neither good nor bad. As humans, we regularly make things beautiful, but we also spoil much that we touch.

Truman's Bomb

I have been watching the American Experience documentary on President Truman. So far I am half way through and just got to the end of World War II. Since I haven't read McCullough's Truman or any other biography, this is my first study of him. The one thing that sticks out of course is the decision to bomb Nagasaki and Hiroshima using the nuclear bomb.

Usually the decision to bomb Japan is contrasted to not using the bomb and invading mainland Japan. That option of course would have lead to many thousands more American deaths. However, that was not the only other option. Truman, as has been well established, could have used the bomb once in Japan where there were no people or at the very least on a military target to show the amazing power of the atomic bomb.

The question is why didn't he chose one of those other options. If I understand the documentary correctly, Truman delegated the decision about where to use the bomb to the military. Only after the extreme destruction of the two bombings did Truman take the power back from the military so that he alone would decide if there was another bombing and where it would be.

If this is true, I find it appalling and very scary. I can admit that I don't have the proper historical context - maybe presidents delegated chores like this frequently during this time. If so, Truman made a grave and stupid mistake not recognizing that his was a new weapon that demanded new protocol.

The nuclear bomb should have been used on military targets until it was clear Japan was not scared, and only then used on civilian populations. And that decision should have come from the President himself. I think we have learned our lesson. What I don't understand is why we (or McCullough) hold Truman in such high regard. Maybe the second half of the documentary will show me.

Things Change: 2010

Good Morning! So most of the election results are in, and I have to say I am not too upset by the results. The House went Republican by what will probably be 65ish votes. The Senate has stayed Democrat with as many as 53 seats for the Dems. And in NYS, all statewide seats went Democrat, but the state senate is still up in the air, with a 31-31 split a real possibility. Having to compromise might make the chamber more effective, but I doubt it.

The biggest reason I am relatively happy though is that it looks like the crazy and not-so-bright candidates mostly lost. Sharron Angle lost by 6 percent in Nevada (whereas polls had her in the lead), Joe Miller seems to have lost to write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski (a more reasonable Republican), Linda McMahon lost in Connecticut, and of course Christine O'Donnell lost in Delaware, as expected. All of those outcomes comfort me. I don't mind a Republican outcome as long as it is the relatively reasonable people that win and not the crazies.

What about Rand Paul you ask? I think he is on the fringe (and ignorant of macroeconomics), but he is smart and thoughtful, if lacking judgment.

Election Night 2010

This election is really firming my belief in the long run / big picture. Change does not happen overnight (except in rare situations). But it does happen slowly. And while people like Rand Paul win elections, their policies of very limited government have been rejected for well over 200 years now. As a country we have slowly increased the role of government to situations that are appropriate and necessary. The point of all this is to say that I have not lost faith; change will come, but slowly.

As for what we know right now: In the Senate, West Virginia (and as expected so have Connecticut and Delaware) has gone to the Democrats. This means the chances of Republicans taking the Senate are slim (2% according to 538). But I have turned off the TV because I can't bear to watch Republicans that know nothing about economics talk about belt tightening.

Lightning Rounds

I didn't realize it until I saw this post, but I hate lightning rounds at candidate debates. There are very few questions in politics that can be answered with either a yes or a no. Instead, this sort of thing fuels unfair negative attack adds by trapping politicians. And you'll see that most of the questions are not even relevant or meaningful.

I've selected the worst questions from the lightning round at the Gillibrand / DioGuardi debate.

- Has the Tea Party movement been good for America?

This is a really stupid question when only allowing a yes or no answer. A candidate should be able to say that almost any public movement addressing government is a good one. And a movement that acts as a counter to government expansion is a helpful check. The candidate should then be able to say that they disagree with most of the tea party stands for - that they are selfish and uncaring and we need energetic government to help those facing difficulties.

- Should Andrew Cuomo debate Carl Paladino one-on-one?

Why would / should either Gillibrand or DioGuardi have an opinion about that?

- Should the Guantanamo prisoners be tried in military tribunals instead of US criminal court?

This is a question that could have a yes or no, but because it is a complicated issue, it deserves a much more nuanced answer.

- Should Alan Hevesi go to prison?

Again, why would either Gillibrand or DioGuardi have a position on this?

- Would David Paterson make a better US Senator than Governor?

This is the worst of the worst. Of course Paterson would be a better Senator - he has less responsibility. He was a good state senator. He hasn't been a good governor. Unfortunately, just acknowledging that, especially by Gillibrand, suggests maybe Paterson should have nominated himself. The real question is whether Paterson would have been a good Senator and why.

- Would you attend the groundbreaking for the Islamic cultural center and mosque near the WTC site?

Ugh. The ground braking is not happening anytime soon. This is such an absurd hypothetical question and so much can change between now and the actual groundbreaking - if it even happens. All this does is gives candidates the chance to get into trouble by saying something now and then circumstances changing.

- Would Hillary Clinton make a good VP candidate in 2012?

Again, poorly worded so much as to render it meaningless. The question should be whether Hillary should be the VP nominee. Lots of people might make good VP candidates, but the real question is who the candidate should be.

- Did Anita Hill tell the truth?

Give me a break. No one knows whether she told the truth. The best we can say is that she raised troubling allegations. Unfortunately, in our world questions like this break down by political affiliation, and that is actually the expectation. Gillibrand knew she had to say yes and DioGuardi had to say no. It is appalling that the questioner would put them on the spot like this and force them to take this position in a way that doesn't allow any nuance.

Tea Party is Bad for Business

I hadn’t thought about this, but yes, the Tea Party is bad for business. They want to abolish the Federal Reserve and strongly opposed TARP. They also oppose federal education funding, which would likely decrease education spending and achievement leading to a less skilled workforce. And they oppose the EPA, which maybe businesses agree with, although if I were a good business, I wouldn’t want to be businesses that pollute to be more competitive than me. Then again, maybe good businesses don’t exist.

Scientific American for Policy Issues

I recently subscribed to Scientific American thinking that it wouldn’t really have any political / policy applications but would be good to keep up to date on major science developments (after reading Bill Bryson). Instead, there are lots of articles about policy*. I feel stupid now for not realizing how much science and policy interacts.

Here are just a few of the recent examples: from the most recent issue, the magazine had stories on the climate change debate, phosphorus in lakes (ie pollution due to fertilizer manufacturing), the super grid, and a brief on chemicals in our environment. Previous issues discussed hydraulic fracturing for natural gas, robots in war, and technology in government, among many other topics. And the beauty is that I feel you can trust Scientific American more than most other sources that might also cover these issues. Amazing.

And yes, tonight is the night of short posts.

*Note: I had originally said "science" here. Clearly I meant to say policy.

Self-Funded

The NY Times blog 538 had an interesting post about self-funded candidates, and here is the line that really caught my eye:

But individual contributions are often a good proxy for grass-roots support, and a candidate who bypasses the routine of building fund-raising networks may also miss an opportunity to build volunteer networks, which can be useful in motivating turnout. Moreover, self-financed candidates have had a fairly poor track record on Election Day in recent years. Ms. McMahon is an unusual candidate running an unusual campaign in an unusual cycle, so we’ll have to see how this all plays out.

I had never thought this way about self-funded candidates. It makes me think of Bloomberg's 2009 campaign in a whole new light and could be another way of understanding his relatively poor showing (and Thompson’s surprising competitiveness) in the 2009 elections. I had chalked it up to voter anger at Bloomberg, but this makes a little more sense - or at least adds another dimension.

Another Note on Moderates

Since the beginning of Obama's presidency, Democrats have been criticizing Republicans for their unwillingness to compromise. The problem is that both parties have been punishing and chasing away moderates in their party that otherwise might be willing to be bipartisan (Blanche Lincoln, Arlen Specter, John McCain, Lincoln Chafee, etc). We can’t expect compromise if both parties punish compromise. I'm just saying.

Another Quick Election Update

The 538 blog on the NY Times, which has great commentary on the election polling, has the Senate at 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans (although I can’t make the math work - looks to me like 51 Dem...) and the House at 232 Republican and 203 Democrat. Not bad, all things considered.

More Thoughts On Obama Year 2

I want to be clear (to myself and to you) about why I think Obama has not been doing a great job. Overall, my problem is not that I feel he has been too moderate (ie that he hasn't been liberal enough). I don’t begrudge compromises on health care, financial services reform, or even a lack of progress on Guantanamo. I do think that on health care in particular, he has failed to defend it adequately.

I do have a problem though with his relatively weak foreign policies. He has not been strong enough with Israel, he has not done much on Darfur, and now this report on child soldiers.

And I think his economic policies have been weak. While his rhetoric with the banks has been strong, his policies with them have been scared (his work on foreclosed homes is a prime example). And his stimulus was too weak, but he is sticking to it instead of fighting for more.

Elections Prediction: 10/24/2010

Traders at Intrade are predicting that Republicans will take the House and Democrats will keep the Senate. Rasmussen has the Senate as 48 solid Democrats, 46 solid Republicans and 6 toss-ups. My prediction is that Democrats will win in Washington and California (and Connecticut). That gives them 50 plus Biden. I think Nevada will be a nail biter. I think Reid might be able to pull it off, although his debate performance seems to have been weak and I read that he isn’t campaigning as hard. I will not be surprised if Rand Paul wins. He seems somewhat smart (if lacking judgement and thoughtfulness). But I will be appalled if Sharon Angle wins.

James Carville et al have an interesting column in today's NY Times comparing this election to the midterms in 1998. I wonder if Democrats have enough time to make the point that Carville thinks voters will listen to (ie middle class and American jobs).

I don't know why we can't once and for all quiet the calls for ideological purity. And I thought we would have learned already from 2006 and 2008 that a big tent is a winning strategy. But of course there will always be people who learn the wrong lessons from history.

There is so much wrong with the logic in the column I linked to above. It blames the Blue Dog Democrats for current legislative troubles, which is completely absurd. If some of the more conservative Democrats had been Republicans, we would have likely gotten an even more moderate health care bill (and stimulus and financial reform), if any at all.

A Blue Dog only wants to moderate Democratic tendencies, where as Republicans want to thwart all Democrat efforts. And thinking that we can make up for the loss of numbers through being better motivated (because moderates apparently demotivate the party) is just naive. The columnist also realizes that Republicans are going to lose some races because of ideological purity, but doesn't see the same for Democrats.

The biggest mistake though comes from not understanding basic human behavior. Whether we are in a center-right or center-left country - we are near the center. And thinking you will be more successful by becoming more extreme is just ridiculous. You make progress by convincing the independents to move a little in your direction, and you can only do that with moderates in your party.

I don't know if there is really a trend of increasing partisanship - it seems like it, but then again, I think we underestimate how partisan the past was. But I did mourn the loss of reasonable moderate Republicans in 2006 (only slightly since it did increase Democratic majorities) and I will mourn the loss of moderate Democrats this year. The moderates keep both parties from going too far to the extreme and actually allow us to make positive changes. Within both parties there are voices calling for ideological purity. Not only is it a losing strategy for elections and governing, but it is bad for compromise and our discourse.

Monetary Policy

Many conservatives seem to think that monetary policy is the best way to escape recessions and prevent bubbles. At the moment however, we are limited in our monetary policy solutions since the most powerful tool - lowering short term interest rates - is not workable because those interest rates are near zero.

I wonder though if using monetary policy alone leads to situations like this. I am no economist (ignore the fact that it was one of my majors in undergrad - it wasn't a very rigorous program), but it seems that at least through the 2000s we were willing to decrease interest rates to get out of a recession but were less willing to increase interest rates to slow down a boom.*

If this is true, how often does monetary policy operate like this? It seems similar to how we actually practice Keynesian policies - where government deficit spends in recessions but does not run surpluses in boom times. They call this one-eyed Keynesian policies. Do we use one-eyed monetary policies?

Either way - it seems clear that at times - this being one of them - monetary policy is unlikely to save us. If only we have the political will to use more fiscal policy.

*Paul Krugman says that fed policy did not cause the bubble. I can't tell though if he is saying then that fed policy could not have prevented the bubble. What would have happened if the fed had increased interest rates in 2005ish? Would it at least have allowed them to lower interest rates more now to get out of the recession?

Book Report: Definitive History

This is my attempt to create a list of the definitive books on major historical events. I hope to keep this a work in progress, so feel free to comment on my selections and offer up alternatives. So you know, my idea of a definitive book would be contemporary, well written, and if possible not insanely long. In many cases, I will go with authors that have a good reputation. I will also mention good documentaries where available.

You'll notice that the list is heavily America-focused. I'm happy to add other subjects as they come to me. I am tempted to add histories of China and Russia, although I don't even know where to start. And to be honest, those would probably be so long I'd never actually get around to reading them. I'll look for documentaries instead.

American History
A People's History of the United States by Howard Zinn
I actually want to read A Patriot's History of the United States also and see how different it is from Zinn's book. I wonder if the difference is on emphasis. It will also be interesting to compare them to *Lies My Teacher Told Me, which had more of a focus on how to teach history (from a progressive standpoint) although definitely interpreted history from a liberal perspective.

American Revolution
?

Civil War
Battle Cry of Freedom by James McPhearson
There are tons of books on the war depending on your angle. Battle Cry of Freedom seems to be the best book since it is popular and pretty brief considering the material. It was first published in 1989, so not that contemporary.

Reconstruction
A Short History of Reconstruction by Eric Foner
This book is at the top of my reading list. It is supposed to be the best book on Reconstruction and will paint a different picture (and more accurate) picture than Gone with the Wind.

World War I
The First World War by Martin Gilbert
The First World War by John Keegan
I have no idea which is better. Both books seem to be well regarded. And both authors wrote books on World War Two, as you will see.

Treaty of Paris
*Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World by Margaret MacMillan
This is a good book. Many of the problems we face today stem from the seemingly arbitrary decisions of this peace conference. Although the big lesson is probably that the decisions only seemed arbitrary because the decision makers had to choose between idealism (which wasn't even always clear) and pragmatism and old-style spoils.

Great Depression
?

World War II
The Second World War by Martin Gilbert
The Second World War by John Keegan

Nazi Germany
Richard Evans' trilogy (The Coming of the Third Reich, The Third Reich in Power, The Third Reich at War) seems to be replacing the classic The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William Shirer. Although for brevity, one might choose Shirer's book over the trilogy.

Cold War
The Cold War by John Lewis Gaddis
For the Soul of Mankind by Melvyn P. Leffler
Also, The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times by Odd Arne Westad, seems a fascinating read and maybe a better study of interventions than Overthrow.

Korean War
The Coldest Winter by David Halberstam
This got really good reviews. When I feel the itch to learn about this war, I will definitely go to this book. And in this case, reading a book by a journalist doesn't scare me because of Halberstam's reputation.

Cuban Missile Crisis
One Minute to Midnight by Michael Dobbs.
This book got really good reviews when it came out. I wonder if people were as thirsty for it as I was, considering that before it was published, RFK's version was the only book available (hardly an objective account).

Vietnam War
Vietnam: A History by Stanley Karnow
This seems to be the best history book about the war, although it is not very current. A Bright Shining Lie by Neil Sheehan and The Best and the Brightest by David Halberstam are also about the time period around Vietnam but focusing on some specific people. Vietnam: A Television History seems to have come from Karnow's book. I will probably try that documentary before I try one of the books.

Civil Rights in the South
The Taylor Branch books (Parting the Waters, Pillar of Fire, At Canaan's Edge - ie America in the King Years) are the most contemporary. I am not sure how much they cover groups outside the King orbit (SNCC and Black Panthers) though. That is something I'll have to investigate.

Civil Rights in the North
Sweet Land of Liberty: The Forgotten Struggle for Civil Rights in the North by Thomas Sugrue.
I really want to read this book, but it is insanely long. Not sure when I will make time for it. I do think though that it is necessary reading for people who think civil rights was only an issue in the South.

Watergate
All the President's Men by Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward

Women's Rights / Feminism
When Everything Changed by Gail Collins
I can't say for sure that this is the best book on the subject, but it is the best one I have come across so far. It is on my reading list.

Apartheid
The Rise and Fall of Apartheid by David Welsh
I am not sure if this is the book I have been looking for. I desperately want a well-written history of Apartheid. *Long Walk to Freedom, Nelson Mandela's autobiography is not that book. It is a fine autobiography (although a little tedious and has too many trite observations), but not a good history since it doesn't cover many other players (like Desmond Tutu for example).

Indian Independence
I can't tell for sure, but Indian Summer by Alex Von Tunzelmann seems to be the most read out there. It focuses on the summer when India won its independence, but hopefully it gives enough background.


* books that I have read

Book Report: Notes of a Native Son

I recently read Notes of a Native Son by James Baldwin and it was amazing. Well, to be honest, Part I wasn't that easy to read since I hadn't read the books or seen the movies he reviews. Part II (essays on race in America) and Part III (essays on Baldwin's time abroad) however are breathtaking. Although I flagged a number of powerful passages, I will leave you with the ultimate highlight from the title essay:

It began to seem that one would have to hold in the mind forever two ideas which seemed in opposition. The first idea was acceptance, the acceptance, totally without rancor, of life as it is, and men as they are: in the light of this idea, it goes without saying that injustice is a commonplace. But this did not mean that one could be complacent, for the second idea was of equal power: that one must never, in one's own life, accept these injustices as commonplace but must fight them with all one's strength. This fight begins however, in the heart and it now had been laid to my charge to keep my own heart free of hatred and despair. This intimation made my heart heavy and, now that my father was irrecoverable, I wished that he had been beside me so that I could have searched his face for the answers which only the future would give me now.

More and more this idea is becoming a huge part of my overall philosophy. The world is imperfect and we cannot make it perfect. But we must fight, slowly but doggedly, for incremental changes. And we cannot ever give in to despair. Baldwin puts this thought to writing so well and it comes at the end of a really powerful essay about race and his father.

On another note, discovering Baldwin reminds me how little I know about African-American thought and history. Unfortunately, the common portrayal of African-American thought divides everything into two camps: non-violent strategies lead by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and the violent strategies of Malcom X and the Black Panthers. It takes reading books by Ralph Ellison or James Baldwin (or better yet Malcolm X himself) to start to appreciate what should be obvious - that African-American thought is far more varied and complex.

Responsibility for the Fishes

My colleague and I started having an interesting debate that I want to bring to this forum. The debate was around food policy, but actually has much bigger implications. I was explaining why I don't eat fish - namely because too much if not all of the fish are caught using unsustainable practices. Basically, I don't want to be part of a system that is destroying our oceans - especially now that scuba diving is a big hobby of mine and I have discovered how beautiful and wonderful our oceans are.

My colleague seemed to say that overfishing is government's problem, that he isn't responsible for it, and that even if he stopped eating fish it would make no noticeable difference on overfishing. (If I have misstated his position, I am sure he'll correct me in the comments.)

One of his points is hard to contradict - that when he (or I) stop eating fish it has a negligible effect on the gigantic problem. This is mostly true. Granted, this point depends on your definition of negligible. If we assume he (or I) eats 1/4 pound of fish per week (which I think is 1 serving), that equates to 1 pound per month, 12 pounds per year, and 600 pounds over 50 years. That is a lot of fish, although considering what a trawler likely picks up in one trip, it is mostly negligible.

But it is the other two points that I don't agree with. I might agree that government policy may be the most effective way to deal with it, but I don't agree that without government action, we are absolved of responsibility.

We can think of many similar examples to compare to this one (for example purchasing rare wood from forests that are being legally depleted in a foreign country), but I don't know if we need to go there. The basic question is easy enough to evaluate: are we responsible when our actions contribute to something that has a negative impact and is that responsibility in any way dependent on how much we are contributing to the problem?

I think the answer is obvious - that by contributing, even in a small amount to a very big problem, we are responsible. And I fear that by absolving ourselves of responsibility and leaving it to government to deal with it, it creates an attitude that discourages individual responsibility.

I want to be clear though before I move on that I only expect people to take actions that are practical. Driving cars, using electricity, and throwing out waste have negative effects on the environment. I don't expect people to stop driving cars. But I do expect people to think about when driving the car is unnecessary. Personally, on this issue, I think it is practical, although not as enjoyable, to stop eating fish.

Anyway, this liberal belief that government should do everything for us and can therefore absolve us of responsibility is a terrible mindset. And conservative criticisms of this mindset is one of their most potent points. While I think government can and should enshrine policies like this, mostly because there are people that don't care about the public good and need restrictions, I don't agree at all that if there isn't a government policy against it, we can do it even when we know it has serious negative consequences.

I absolutely do not want to live in a world where people decide they are not responsible for the world around them; where they are so comfortable with government's actions that they feel they don't need to sacrifice in any way to make the world better. Yes, the government has programs to help those in need, but we still should be donating as much as we can to charity and volunteering as often as we can. And yes, the government has good environmental policies, but we still need to be aware of what policies the government hasn't passed yet and what actions of ours are having negative effects on the world.

We cannot wait for government to act. We need to accept responsibility for the ways our individual actions lead to collective problems. And so each individual needs to try to do their part, even if for one individual, it makes small or no noticeable difference.

Book Report: And the Band Played On

And the Band Played On is one of the best books I have ever read. It is a pretty quick and easy read considering how big the book is. At times it is enraging, other times dispiriting, and sometimes really, really sad. Maybe most importantly, the lessons on policy and politics are huge.

I think the first take away is that services cost money. This point is crystal clear in this book. The Reagan administration wanted to cut the size of government based on their belief that government is wasteful and does too much. What happens in reality though is that government is prevented from doing the things it should be doing. Of course, Reagan cared little for the populations originally affected by AIDS - homosexuals and IV drug users (why hemophiliacs were not more sympathetic is surprising), but more importantly, Reagan and his budget office did not see the value in government-run medical research and disease prevention.

The author also makes the point often about how the press largely ignored this issue until it seemed like it might affect straight people as well. With the press ignoring the issue, the Reagan administration was able to get off the hook even when Congress pressed. In fact, at times it seems that the author (a journalist himself) blames the press more than he blames Reagan. And so do I; you expect Reagan to be heartless, but not journalists.

Also, quite a few public officials from that time come off looking really bad. Mayor Ed Koch did nothing to help educate people or otherwise prevent the spread nor did he provide funding for services to care for those that were developing it. Mario Cuomo as governor of New York was no better. Diane Feinstein also looks bad - although not quite as bad as Koch and Cuomo (her main flaw was to oppose closing the bath houses until late). Other public officials actually surprised you and did the right thing. The one that comes to mind is Orin Hatch.

What was most dispiriting was how many people acted in their own interest instead of doing what in retrospect was clearly the right thing to save the most people. Bath house owners fought to stay open and blood banks refused to test their blood.

Parts of the medical community also come off looking bad in the book. Actually, it is more accurate to say that research and academics looked bad, while many general practitioners - the few heroes in this epidemic - fought valiantly to raise awareness and help those that were diagnosed.

The author also shows the big fights inside the gay community over this issue, and it is painful to see those that were sounding the alarm getting viciously attacked. I don't imagine that this was an easy issue in the moment, especially the early days, for those in the gay community. But the real lesson should be that when something like this comes up, we need to do everything we can to look at the issue objectively and if not without emotion, than at least with the right kind of emotion.

Everyone should have been most focused on the lives being lost and the great potential for so many more if action wasn't taken (as happened because action was not taken). Instead people focused on petty concerns (money) and non-petty concerns (gay rights / defending against sexual morality attacks) that still paled compared the health risks.

I will say this again - this is one of the best and most important books I have read. I wish everyone would read it.

NY Times: Op-Ed at 40

The Times has an amazing feature today in recognition of their 40 years of Op-Eds. The feature includes some of the most notable Op-Eds (good and bad) over that time. The highlights include:

A piece by Gloria Steinem on Clinton's impeachment. For the record, I completely disagree with it. Of course yes means yes and no means no. However, it is difficult to think that a supervise has the power to say no to a supervisor - that he or she can actually consent to anything. It seems to me that there was a lot of tortured logic on both sides during the Clinton impeachment trial (one of the few clear voices was Marjorie Williams) and this strikes me as one of them.

A great piece by Harvard theologian Peter J. Gomes. I would give you a quote, but really you need to read the whole thing. It is titled A Bible for All and it is near perfect.

A piece by Henry Louis Gates (of break-in fame) about the poison of bias.

Those are the three that stuck out to me so far. If I notice more, I'll update the post.

The John Yoo Interview

I know I am late to the party on this one, but I finally got around to watching Jon Stewart's interview (January 11, 2010 - in three parts) of John Yoo - infamous author of the "torture memo". I remember hearing that Stewart apparently blew the interview, and he apologized afterwards.

After watching it, I think it was a great and thoughtful interview. Granted, I am sure Stewart and many of his liberal viewers were hoping for John Yoo to get skewered and end up as contrite and apologetic as Jim Cramer. But that is an unrealistic expectation. Instead, what you had was a great debate (although it might have been better with someone with more expertise than Stewart to battle Yoo) on executive power. And it seems to me that the type of debate they had is rare on TV - it was considered, pretty long, and most of all, respectful.

I appreciated hearing John Yoo's point of view that a strong executive is necessary to have a government capable of responding to developing situations. And he conceded that it is necessary even when president's are likely to make mistakes sometimes. Juxtaposing Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation with Bush's GWOT is instructive (actually Yoo compared it to Nixon and Watergate, which was a bad comparison since Nixon's actions were clearly illegal).

Not only did Stewart conduct a good interview, but I think the point he was trying to make was a good one. He was trying to say that these circumstances are no different than other wars and that the president's powers shouldn't change and neither should our values. Torturing criminals might save lives in certain circumstances (at least if you think torture gives you good information), but we do not condone that. So Yoo's logic about this being an unprecedented situation is false.

Although the interview was good, Jon Stewart did miss a few key points.

First, Stewart should have disagreed with Yoo in how much power an executive does and should have. Yoo thinks a president at war is only restrained from doing things that are not necessary for winning the war. Instead, I think it is our laws and our principles that are checks on presidential power.

In support of this point, Stewart could have pointed to history to show why this should b the case. Some president's have violated our basic principles in the name of war to enact policies that violated our laws and principles and were clearly mistakes. Internment of Americans of Japanese dissent is one such mistake. A government where the president's power is checked by our principles - as enacted in our laws - is necessary to prevent these types of overreaches. And I would argue that the Geneva Convention was just such a law that should have checked against Bush's overreach.

Second, we might understand a need to have policies that set different levels of interrogation than we have for American criminal suspects. However, to the extent that these are new situations and new powers. they should be created through law. Instead, John Yoo thought they could be determined by drafting a legal memo. Others, like Jack Goldsmith, rightly thought this needed to be done through Congressional legislation. Stewart should have pressed this point.

Finally, and maybe most importantly, Jon Stewart did not go after Yoo for the policies that were condoned and considered to be short of torture. Again, we can understand different rules and processes for terrorists, but to claim that what the Bush administration did (forced standing for days, extended sleep deprivation, food deprivation, physical violence, and water boarding) was short of torture is absurd. Yoo should have had to justify why water boarding is okay, but dunking someone's head in a bucket of water, submerging them in a pool, or holding a gun to their head is not torture.

But What Caused It?

A lot has been written about the financial crisis - what caused it, why was it so bad, and how do we get out. I hear that the best written explanation of the mechanics of the housing financial tools that played a part in the collapse is The Big Short by Michael Lewis (certainly Moneyball and Liar's Poker were well written). Too Big to Fail (think Game Change for the financial crisis) describes what everyone did and said as the crisis was unfolding, but is not as great at explaining the mechanics.

But for good detailed economic analysis of this recession, I have been relying mostly on Paul Krugman. His latest piece in the New York Review, co-authored with Robin Wells (the two are married) is probably the best analysis I have read about what really caused the financial crisis.

Krugman and Wells explore the four most common theories for the cause of the collapse.
- Low interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve
- Global savings glut
- Complicated financial products
- Government policy (ie Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac / CRA)

You might be surprised to hear that Krugman and wells say that the global savings glut is the primary cause of the real estate bubble and subsequent collapse. I just had an argument with one of the few conservatives I know about this, and I had come down decidedly on blaming Wall Street and complicated financial instruments. My conservative friend clearly blamed the government.

Krugman and Wells dismiss the low interest rate policy due to a real estate bubble that existed in Europe as well, where central banks were not keeping rates as low. They dismiss complicated financial products because all European real estate and American commercial real estate also had bubbles, and neither of those used these American products. And they dismiss government policy, which they have been dismissing for a long time, because Fannie and Freddie made less of the really troubled loans than other private institutions and there is no link between CRA-qualifying loans and high rates of default.

The global savings glut is explained as follows:

Historically, developing countries have run trade deficits with advanced countries as they buy machinery and other capital goods in order to raise their level of economic development. In the wake of the financial crisis that struck Asia in 1997–1998, this usual practice was turned on its head: developing economies in Asia and the Middle East ran large trade surpluses with advanced countries in order to accumulate large hoards of foreign assets as insurance against another financial crisis.

The authors say that this savings glut lead to low long-term interest rates (different from the short-term rates controlled by the Fed) and the low rates were primarily directed into real estate.

If I read the article right, the authors do blame financial institutions for letting a bubble take down the entire economy. Financial institutions were able to borrow much more than they could really back up through lax government rules and borrowing through repurchase agreements that were not government guaranteed, subjecting the firms to crises of confidence. Krugman and Wells say that loans like Repo agreements accounted for 60 percent of the banking system yet was largely unregulated.

If their analysis is correct, the next questions are how do we get out of the recession and how do we prevent this from happening again. Their next article in the NY Review will tell us how to get out. I need to learn more about the Wall Street reform to see if we are preventing this from happening again.

Behind the Scenes!

I don't know if you have noticed, but I am suddenly really into books that give behind-the-scenes accounts of current events. I loved The Nine and Game Change and Too Big to Fail is really good so far. And now, I am getting pretty excited about Bob Woodward Obama's Wars.

A year ago I would not have considered reading a Bob Woodward book. At the time, his books seemed gossipy and too "inside baseball". I wanted books about policy, not petty politics. But while I still like policy books, I am pushing a lot of other books aside to read these inside accounts.

I think the new interest in this sort of book has two sources. First, the books are usually pretty breezy, as non-fiction goes. This means that after an intense day at work, I can still manage to read and comprehend these books on my commute home.

But more importantly, I think seeing the inner-workings of other elected officials - or organizations that have a public impact - is fascinating now that I work for an elected official. I can compare what is happening in these books to what is happening at work. As I continue to get my bearings in a political institution, these books provide additional lessons. And I can't seem to get enough of it.

(By the way, I love that some of the coverage talks about the decision to work with Woodward or not. Some people have thought by bringing him in, they could control the story. But you can also see that shutting him out doesn't keep him from getting information. Washington is abuzz to see how Obama will be portrayed.)

I Like the Filibuster - Mostly

There is a lot of grumbling over the use of filibusters in the Senate this term from frustrated Democrats. While I hate the hyper-partisan atmosphere, I can't get myself too worked up over the filibuster. (New York Review of Books has a good - and one-sided - article on the filibuster which I found unconvincing.)

The Democrats had an extremely ambitious agenda after eight years of Bush and they were definitely seeking to move much or all of it through in two years. Here is a list of the major legislation they were seeking:

- Health care expansion
- Financial services reform
- Climate change
- Immigration reform

You'll note that I did not include tax reform or education - the former because I don't find it that significant since it seems to change with every administration and the later because Obama's reforms are not so liberal.

Since the four I listed are pretty significant changes, I am not upset that we were denied progress on two of these four even though I support all four. I think Democrats were a bit too ambitious and voters seem to be hitting the brakes. Without the filibuster, Democrats might have made even more progress and engendered even more of a negative reaction.

One possible counter argument that I can imagine is that if the Senate were not dominated by minority power, we wouldn't need to wait so long for any change. As it is now, when there is an opportunity for change, we are not satisfied with incremental change because we doubt we'll be able to get further increments in the future. So instead we go big, which creates serious minority party opposition.

While i think this is possible, I think it is more likely that without the check in the Senate, the party in power would seek major changes and appeal to their base. My fear in that case then is with whipsaw policies - going back and forth as the winds change. Imagine privatizing social security one year, then reversing it the next. Or enacting health care reforms only to see them repealed. While we have some of this now (taxes and benefits for the poor certainly wax and wane) I worry about this for bigger policies.

The one place I think the filibuster should be curtailed is on presidential appointments below the level of cabinet or Supreme Court. I think Republicans have stalled on Obama's appointments in a way that is shameful - although I am hearing that Obama also hasn't been very forceful or even attentive on this matter. These appointments have little impact when approved but major impact when they are all stalled. Filibuster ability is unnecessary in those cases.

Beyond that one reform though, I like the role of the Senate as more deliberate and slowing change. I think it works both ways, preventing ill-considered Republican and Democrat changes. I am confident that progress happens over time and that in time, 60 Senators do agree to move ahead.

In fact, I think that in a time with slightly less partisanship, we could have balanced immigration reform and incremental climate change action. If we see that time, we might forget all about the filibuster. The question is, when will we ever move beyond the insane hyper-partisanship.

2010 Primary Craziness

I want to write a quick post about last night's primaries here in New York State. Overall, I would say I am mostly satisfied with the outcomes. And there was plenty of excitement.

Let's start with the GOP governor's race. Paladino. Crazy. But don't be fooled. This is one of those races where a candidate won because his opponent was so bad. Lazio was hoping to ride an earned advertising wave based on his Mosque opposition to make up for his anemic fund raising. Unfortunately, that issue won him national media attention, but not much favor among NYS Republicans (despite it being popular among that group). He blew the race big time.

What is going to be really interesting come November is whether these far right candidates, like Paladino, Christine O'Donnell, Rand Paul, and Sharron Angle, can win in a general election. In one corner, you have unpopular Democrats who seemed to go a bit too far toward government expansion during a recession and have lost the independents. In the other corner, you have some real wingnut conservatives. Moderate liberals who went too far versus extreme conservatives. It is going to be an interesting November.

Now let's look at corruption and ethics issues. I would say in New York State it was a little more positive than negative. Sure Charles Rangel won in the primary. Then again, his next closest challenger struck most as little better. But that can be forgiven since Pedro Espada lost and Hiram Monserrate did not win in his race for the Assembly. In those two races, I have gained more faith in voters than I lost seeing Rangel win. And hey, maybe when Rangel finally retires, he'll support someone really deserving, like Joyce Johnson (who really should have a better Google presence). Also, Bill Perkins won reelection - although part of me wonders if I had him wrong or maybe oversimplified the situation. So I am at peace with that outcome as well.

To conclude - New York State (so long as it doesn't actually elect Paladino) took a step forward last night. But nationally, we have some interesting races to look forward to. Buckle up.

Book Report: A Short History of Nearly Everything

Bill Bryson's A Short History of Nearly Everything is not so much a policy book. However, I will include it here because it has affected my world view. There are three things that I learned that hit home with me.

First, science is sometimes wrong. This should not be an excuse to dismiss science, but to instill a little bit of humility. The world is a complicated place and we only understand the tip of the iceberg, to use an apt cliche. This is more true in areas where we are developing new information and trying to break new ground.

Second, the world has been around a really long time. We have been around a tiny fraction of that time (if the earth's history were the equivalent of one day, humans would represent 1 minute and 17 seconds and our recorded history just a few seconds). This is just to make you feel a little less significant - to knock you down a peg.

Third, we are here, in this moment, due to a whole lot of luck. The end of the last ice age allowed humans to develop agriculture and thereby expand and we are lucky to not have another one (temperatures would decrease 10F). Too many genetic mutations to count evolved species, which eventually lead to us. I cannot express to you though how random and non-linear that process was. The end of the dinosaurs allowed mammals to flourish. The composition of the earth's crust, with a liquid outer core, produces the magnetic field that likely protects us from otherwise deadly radiation from the sun. And finally, although we suffer from periodic natural disasters, we have been free so far from major disasters that have affected the earth - like meteors or massive volcanoes like the one under Yellowstone Park.

I highly recommend this book. You will learn a lot about science and the history of how we know what we know. And hopefully it will make you even more curious about how scientific knowledge is developing. One thing is for certain though, you will be thoroughly entertained the whole time. Bryson has a dry wit and a good eye for the interesting part of each story.

Drinking the Sand

"People want leadership, Mr. President, and in the absence of genuine leadership, they'll listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership. They're so thirsty for it they'll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there's no water, they'll drink the sand." - Michael J. Fox as Lewis Rothschild in The American President

I was watching Meet the Press this morning for the first time in a really long time. I was disappointed in two people. First, I was disappointed in Lindsey Graham who did nothing but spout superficial and erroneous talking points. But I was more disappointed with David Gregory who is not living up to the show that Tim Russert ran and was letting Graham get away with it. There was no depth from Graham and no requirement for depth from Gregory.

However, Lindsey Graham did say at least one thing that was true and I have been thinking about for a while. He said Democrats are not talking about the Health Care bill or the Stimulus bill. He is right and he is especially right when it comes to President Obama. I am getting more disappointed in him by the day and mostly because he is not out there fighting for what he believes in.

Democrats passed a health care bill that even got relative support from Ben Stein. It was marginally unpopular when it was passed and seems to be getting more unpopular as time goes on. Democrats seem scared to talk about this bill because it is unpopular and can be considered a big government expansion. The bill will not go away and will not get more popular unless they stick up for it.

The health care bill, although probably more complicated than it needed to be (I'll get to that another time), did things that are important. It expanded care to people without insurance and will prevent people from being excluded due to pre-existing conditions. I believe these things were worth doing and Democrats apparently did also. If they are worth doing, they are worth defending.

As the quote above shows though, if we aren't talking about it, people will listen to whoever is. Right now, only Republicans are talking about it and they have only negative things to say. Democrats feel that a fight over the right size of government is a losing fight. That is ridiculous. We believe that there are things government can and should do and many of these things the public supports.

The same thing goes for the stimulus. Why is Paul Krugman the only one out there defending Keynesian economics? The public perception is that because the stimulus did not stop the job losses, it did not work and therefore Keynesian policies do not work. President Obama is choosing to take the road that the stimulus is working, but slowly. Unfortunately, no one is buying this. Maybe he doesn't need to go as far as Krugman is, but he needs to defend Keynes and maybe needs to acknowledge that the stimulus was too small, not too big. And there are plenty of economists who will defend him.

I disagree with David Brooks, Obama does not need to avoid the debate over the right size of government. He needs to enter it. He and the rest of the party need to stop letting Republicans set the terms of the debate and need to argue for what we believe in. Short of that, we are likely in for a really ugly November.