North Korea

I have to say, the situation in North Korea has me very scared, especially after reading last month's Atlantic Monthly article. The article laid out the premise that N. Korea will only attack if it feels it is losing its hold on power, or if Bush launches an attack (even a small one targeting weapons facilities). The fact is, N. Korea might be on a path to losing control as its people are starving and even the military is poor. Also, listening to some Republicans, a missile strike isn't out of the realm of possibility (although I do admit that I don't think Bush would actually do it).

The article talks about the very scary prospect of a hard landing if the country collapses. That scenario could involve an attack on Seoul using all types of conventional and WMDs (N. Korea has a significant amount of chemical and biological weapons - and now maybe nuclear as well) and a ground invasion of South Korea.

What I didn't realize was the role China plays in North Korea. Apparently, it provides the most aide to the N. Korean government, and probably also has plans for it if the government falls. The article actually seemed to suggest that China is slowly trying to push for a soft landing North Korea collapse, which would then allow China to take over key parts of the country. I am not sure how I feel about that. While it would be nice to see N. Korea's transition managed by someone other than us, and therefore not have American resources tied up there, China is growing at an incredible rate, and giving them strategic ports and resources of N. Korea would only allow them to get even stronger.

To bring this back to the current situation though, I am having trouble reconciling how I think the administration should handle this. N. Korea wants direct talks with us for many reasons, one of which is to make it feel like it is a world power and justify it's military policies. I don't think we should encourage their behavior by giving them what they want. At the same time though, the government has made some very scary threats recently, and direct talks might be our best option if it results in having control over their nuclear technology. While it is clear that China can have a huge impact on North Korean policy because of the aide they provide, what is not clear is whether they fear China and would therefore become more combative with pressure, or if they respect China and would in fact respond.

What is frustrating about all of this is that neither the Clinton / Jimmy Carter plan of direct talks and US aide, nor the Bush policy of multilateral talks, seemed to have worked. The fact is that this regime will do whatever it takes to stay in power, and the hard line to walk is to prevent a collapse with a hard landing, while also not letting them win minor victories that helps them consolidate power in their country. I don't envy the Bush administration in this task, and I have to admit that they haven't been doing a terrible job on this so far.