Alaskan Veep

The political world is buzzing about McCain's choice for Vice President. I have long thought (although I apparently didn't write about it) that McCain was in a particularly tough position when it came to selecting his running mate. If he chose someone too conservative, he would turn off some of the moderates and independents who were leaning is way. But if he chose someone moderate, he would risk watching the Republican base stay home in November.

Considering that, I think his choice makes sense. Governor Palin seems to have excited the conservative base. As for turning off independents, we'll have to see. My gut instinct though is that she won't scare them as much as a Huckabee - or someone similar - would have.

One place I think it doesn't make a whole lot of sense is in the electoral college. Alaska was going to go to McCain no matter what. Minnesota on the other hand might have been in play had McCain chosen Pawlenty. In fact, I wonder if Gephardt would have been better at delivering Missouri than Edwards was for North Carolina in 2004. Anyway, it appears that McCain believes that Palin's impact nationally will be more meaningful than Pawlenty's impact in Minnesota.

As for whether she balances his governing philosophy, I don't have much input on that at the moment. But David Brooks has an interesting take:

He really needs someone to impose a policy structure on his moral intuitions. He needs a very senior person who can organize a vast administration and insist that he tame his lone-pilot tendencies and work through the established corridors — the National Security Council, the Domestic Policy Council. He needs a near-equal who can turn his instincts, which are great, into a doctrine that everybody else can predict and understand.

This is an interesting analysis, but I wonder if Brooks is putting too much into the VP position (probably based on the Clinton and Bush models of having a powerful VP). Conceivably, McCain could find people like that fill his administration. Although I guess his choice of Palin makes one doubt whether he will.

Now let's talk about the the real issue with this choice: gender. John McCain chose a woman. My initial reaction to the choice was positive. I am glad that if McCain loses, one of the top choices to run in 2012 will be a woman (a woman who by then will have considerably more experience). And any talk about whether she should be running for VP instead of spending more time taking care of her four-month-old infant is, well, sexist. Nobody says that about a man running in the same situation.

Unfortunately though, I still find the choice to be a bit of a let-down. Gail Collins says it pretty well:

This year, Hillary Clinton took things to a whole new level. She didn’t run for president as a symbol but as the best-prepared candidate in the Democratic pack. Whether you liked her or not, she convinced the nation that women could be qualified to both run the country and be commander in chief. That was an enormous breakthrough, and Palin’s nomination feels, in comparison, like a step back.

The real question though is whether this will actually draw independent and liberal women. Are they upset enough still from the primaries that they will flock to Palin and McCain? This of course remains to be seen and I don't really have a prediction. The McCain camp is doing everything it can, including acting hurt on Clinton supporters behalf and suggesting that the Obama campaign was sexist. I have heard others say though that liberal and independent women will still vote Democrat, following issues (like abortion rights and equal pay laws) instead of symbolism. I hope so.