Chess and South Ossetia

I've been looking to get a better description of the events that lead up to the Russian invasion of Georgia. Through these events I have realized just how much we are dependent on the media and their portrayal of events. The earliest reports suggested that Russia's invasion of Georgia was unprovoked. Now the story seems to be that the Russian response was not in proportion to Georgia's provocation. But the only way we can know which of those it was is to get an unbiased account of events. I am still not sure I have gotten that.

This article in the New York Review of Books is the best I have come across. What is amazing about the article is how it has the feel of a chess match. Basically, the article is saying that Russia has been planning to protect and recognize the independence of these regions of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) for some time. It was a response to the US expanding NATO to former Soviet countries, including Poland and now Georgia as well as the US recognizing Kosovo's independence, which Russia fears would strengthen more secessionist movements. Apparently, this has left Russia fearing for its security while also being humiliated at how the US ignores its wishes even in cases where there could be reasonable compromise (ie Kosovo).

Russia's response recently, according to the article, was to make a point to the countries in its region. The point was that US promises of security are merely talk. Russia sees that the US is tied down in Iraq and needs Russian cooperation with Iran. Therefore, Russia can exercise power in its region without serious American intervention. This is supposed to give pause to those who feel safe by American guarantees of support.

It is no surprise that international affairs involve a lot of strategy. But since I spend so much time thinking of examples where strategy seems like less of an issue (Darfur for example, where I care less about strategy and more about seeing some real action), the extent to which both sides are calculating responses and making decisions about gains really struck me.

So the US now has to decide its next move. Our most recent move is to back out of civilian nuclear pact with Russia - which doesn't seem like a major play (not really responding "with tempo"). We need Russia's help, so the options are limited. Being tied down in Iraq further limits our response. We made a decision to invest heavily in the Middle East - with military operations as well as our national attention - which takes away from what we can do in other areas of the board.

As I think all this through, I picture a chess board. I see the US bogged down in a king side attack (Iraq). So Russia sees that it can take one of our pawns. Our only response weakens our on-going king side attack. It seems then that Russia will be able to keep our pawn.

There are two lessons here. One, chess isn't so boring after all. Two, the invasion of Iraq continues to bring out our weaknesses elsewhere. Iraq doesn't seem like it was a very strategic decision. Then again, I never really pegged Bush as a long-term strategic planner.