Mandate and Overreach

If I have learned anything from Obama's election followed by Republican victories in the mid-terms, it is that both sides are bound to misinterpret their victories. Barack Obama, and the Democratic Party, saw the election as a mandate on liberal policies (as opposed to short term correction from bad Bush policies and a victory over an inferior candidate). So they went big and they went hard. They passed a health care reform that was complicated and let Republicans define it as excessively liberal and an overreach.

Looking back, I think Democrats should have focused entirely on the financial crisis, the economy and financial reform. And they could have also made small improvements on health reform.

Republicans though seem to similarly think that there is a huge mandate to reform government. They are talking about drastic cuts to current spending and major changes to entitlement programs and government regulation like EPA. John Boehner seems to be playing it smart and not overreaching on his election. He reached a decent compromise (one I am not happy about, but was good for him), instead of allowing for a government shut-down. There was a lot of talk about how Republicans would be blamed for a shut-down - talk I found nauseating, but probably true. I don't think the 2010 elections were a signal that the public wants serious cuts in programs.

That being said, we'll see if the Republicans can maintain discipline. There is a fight coming up around the debt ceiling, and there is a good chance they will overreach and draw a backlash. (There is also a good chance that the opposite happens; that they extract major concessions from the craven Democrats.)

My basic point is that rarely does public opinion change so much to warrant major policy changes. Those rare examples usually come from major upheavals like the Great Depression - and as bad as this financial crisis has been, it doesn't seem to be having the same widespread impact, thankfully. Politicians should instead realize that the public is often ready for incremental change. If you want to go bigger, you can, but be prepared for a backlash and hope that your changes withstand it.