Just a fun prediction for today's Iowa caucus. I predict that Rick Santorum will win the caucus (25%), with Mitt Romney a close second (24%) and Ron Paul not too far behind in third (21%). Gingrich will finish around 12% in fourth and Perry and Bachaman will be in single digits.
I used real numbers, but what I see happening is Santorum and Romney overperforming the polls - picking up some extra votes - Ron Paul getting about what we expect (thanks to Santorum's surge and some bad press) and the rest losing support as voters either move to Romney or Santorum.
I say this because I have been convinced by what Nate Silver has said about conservative candidates overperforming the polls in Iowa. And Santorum seems in a good position to do that (and not enough time to bring him down with negative adds). In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Santorum is closer to 30% and maybe Romney loses a bit (closer to 20%).
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