Update on 2012 Election

I just want to give my latest thoughts on the upcoming presidential elections. First, I want to say that I actually think President Obama will get a second term. There are two reasons I have changed my mind.

First, the economy seems to be on the mend. And if you'll remember, one of the main reasons I thought he would lose was because the economy wasn't doing well and there was nothing he could say he wanted to do but was prevented. With the economy improving, that goes away and he can instead take credit for it.

But second, the potential GOP challengers are a mess. It looks like Romney will probably get the nomination, though this is no sure thing. Santorum is doing surprisingly well and Gingrich is holding on. If Romney wins, he will do so not by articulating a better vision, but by making his opponents look even worse.

It is clear that Romney is using quite a bit of negative advertising when his opponents start to do well. I'm not saying I oppose this - I don't love it - but my point is more that it shows the weakness of a candidate that has to rely on negative advertising so much.

Romney is also spending quite a bit of money and not raising quite so much. At this time during the elections in 2008, Obama and Hillary were beating each other up, but they were also raising a ton of money and building strong ground operations for the general. None of the GOP candidates are doing this. All, including Romney, are spending on advertising and not on organization.

But I also want to note the possibility that Romney does not win the nomination. If it is Santorum or Gingrich, the party will be sending far right candidates to the general election (though you can call the current version of Romney far right as well). Santorum holds some really crazy positions, not the least of which that a man and a woman should not have sex unless married and trying to conceive. And therefore contraception is wrong. Gingrich is now far right, but also just a lose cannon.

I don't think either of them could win a general election - though it is scary to consider it and to know that it is possible if unlikely.

There is the potential, though also unlikely, for a new GOP candidate to come in through the convention. Whoever that would be would start with a huge disadvantage in money and organizing. Although I will say, I might prefer someone like Jeb Bush if it would lead to a good debate about issues.

Lastly, I just want to express real frustration over GOP attempts, including by Romney (who never ceases to amaze me in his ability to say things that are not true and that I don't think he believes), to paint Obama as a far left liberal. But I am even more frustrated over Obama letting them do that.

The GOP has been attacking Obama's foreign policy, though it is not markedly different from Bush and Cheney (I wish it was). Romney said Obama wants to talk about the poor instead of the middle class even though he doesn't seem to (I wish he did). His attempts to balance the budget are center-right. And his State of the Union seemed to talk only about tax cuts.

I wish we had a president that was liberal and defended liberal values. But at the least, he should really defend his moderation and attack Republicans for lying.