The Sky Isn't Falling?

I was afraid this would happen. Now that Democrats are in charge, some voices on the left are saying that the deficit isn't actually a big deal and that we should continue to spend like crazy if it means expanding social programs. My frustration with this isn't that I think we need to cut social programs. But it really bothers me that Democrats were saying Republicans were spending too much (which they were), but now that we are in power, we will learn how to make excuses for a lack of restraint.

I don't know for sure if Paul Krugman of the NY Times was one of those voices, but I have a feeling that he was. But there were people like him saying that our deficits will soon spell doomesday for our economy, and now seem to think that all will be okay as long as we expand every single program we support.

A Totally New War

I am sure that a large part of this article is outright fear-mongering. Even if that is the case, there is still information in there that is deeply concerning. The analysts that commented in the article admit that they have expected that westerners would become soilders for Al Qaeda. Their passports in England or even the US will make them very valuable to Muslim extremist groups.

When reading this article, I couldn't help wondering if this new war we are facing is completely different than anything we have faced. I know this sounds like a conclusion that everyone else has already come to, but maybe not in the way I mean it. To some respect, I think we still believe that we can use some of the same methods we used during the Cold War, including similar spying techniques. Most people know that this is a new war that feeds in basically lawless and stateless areas. It is a gorilla war that we can't choose whether or not we want to participate. So in understanding that, will any of our previous techinques work?

Right now it looks like the two biggest training areas are Iraq, where people are getting front-line training, and the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The lawless area in Afghanistan is a direct result of our haste to jump into Iraq without completely securing Afghanistan. But in Pakistan the situation is a very different problem, and one we might face more in the future. The government is supposedly an ally of ours but they lack the capacity to control all of their territory. There is also the threat that major crackdowns in those regions could lead to major revolts and possibly the rise of an anti-American government.

This situation is not going to be unique in our future. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, and others do not control all of their country even if they would like to help us in our war against Al Qaeda. So here is the driving question - how do we deal with governments that want to cooperate but are limited in their ability? I admit that I am drawn to the Cold War for help; I am tempted to suggest that we support our own brand of non-governmental militant groups to battle the extremists. But that didn't seem to work too well in the past.

When I read an article like this one in Newsweek, I get an overwhelming feeling that we are going to need to be much more creative in how we meet this threat. The problem is that governments aren't meant to be creative or flexible. The necessity for consensus can slow evolution. My hope though is that somehow the smart voices will rise above the rest and that progress will be made. If that doesn't happen though, we might well end up with more presidents that believe they need the authority to act unilaterally - without input from the UN or even Congress. And that might be better for creative policy-making and change, but I just don't trust leaving that much power in one person. Either way, this is going to be a big issue for a long time and I think everyone should be taking it seriously and learning as much as they can so they can participate intelligently.

Being Unreasonable

My good friend The Beard sent me a link to Samantha Power's commencement address at Swarthmore College in 2002. The address as a whole is really good, and sums up the main points of her book, A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide. But what really got me was her closing:

George Bernard Shaw once wrote, "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world. The unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man."

I wish you, Swarthmore's graduating class of 2002, all the best in the journey that lies ahead. And I pray that you join the ranks of the unreasonable.

Often when I debate issues with my family, I can tell by their tone that they think I am a crazy idealist who just doesn't understand the way the world works. To be fair, I must admit that I have probably implied, if not outright accused, that some of my more liberal friends are guilty of the same thing I am trying to defend myself against.

The truth is that I know the way the world works, but I very strongly believe that I can make a difference to change it (and I am sure the same is true of my more liberal friends). So while I understand, for example, that America's foreign policy decisions are based on our interests and that most Americans want to take care of our own country first, that doesn't mean I find that acceptable. Genocide, mass murder, and mass famine are just as important, if not more so, than issues like food insecurity in America. If the rest of America doesn't agree with me, than I just need to argue louder. Yes, I am an unreasonable idealist, and that is why I strive to adapt the world to me.

Turkey on the Balance

This article ($) from the New York Times sums up the situation in Turkey pretty well. They are situated in such a way that they could either look to the west and adopt government policies based on a European / American model (in regards to human rights, open economy, transparency, etc) and serve as a beacon of light for the rest of the Middle East, or they could instead look to the east and base their practices on countries like Iran, Syria or Saudi Arabia.

What has kept them looking west and making real progress was the carrot of potential membership in the European Union. Now that this is no longer likely in the near future, it seems like there might be less that keeps them looking west.

To try to win membership [to the EU], the Turkish government enacted a series of rigorous reforms to bring the country in line with European standards, including some unprecedented in the Muslim world, like a law against marital rape.

But the admission talks have stalled. And while the official reason involves the longstanding Greek-Turkish dispute over Cyprus, most Turks say they believe the real reason is a deep suspicion of their country's religion.

Indeed, in 2002, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president, said Turkey's admission to the union would mean "the end of Europe." Nicholas Sarkozy, the French presidential hopeful, has made his opposition to Turkish membership a campaign issue. Even the pope, when he was still a cardinal in Germany, said publicly that he did not think Turkey fit into Europe because it was Muslim. That talk has begun to grate on Turks.

[Edit]

Despite growing pains, a neglected Kurdish minority in the south, a thin skin for any reference to the Armenian genocide, and failure to scrap a law that makes insulting Turkishness a crime, Turkey stands out as lively democracy in a larger Middle East riddled with restrictions, and its acceptance by the West is a test case for others, officials said.

Muslim countries, Mr. Tan points out, are watching.

"Turkey is a beacon for those countries," he said. "Don't forget, if we fail, then the whole dream will fail."

A few quotes from moderately influential Europeans (including an obviously anti-Muslim Pope) isn't necessarily proof that their religion is what has kept Turkey out. Just based on the quote above (especially the part about insulting Turkishness being a crime) it appears that Turkey has a ways to go before its government is up to the West's exacting standards. But it is hard to say that religion isn't even a factor.

In the future it will be hard to convince any Muslim country that there are benefits to reform when Turkey couldn't get into the EU despite the changes it has made. This can only continue to make Muslims feel like the West will never really treat them as equals. I think if the EU was wise, it would accept Turkey while continuing to push for further reforms. We need to break the cycle and show through our deeds that we respect Muslims and their faith, even if that means making some compromises along the way.

Intolerance and Religion

I had an interesting conversation with a friend about religion recently. The conversation got started because he was describing the book he is reading that is highly critical of religion in America. In the interests of full disclosure, I should say that I haven’t read the book and my knowledge of it comes from an advertisement I saw about it and my friend’s description of it.

The book seems to be in the same vein as other books out there trying to completely discredit modern religion in America. These are probably responses to the recent strength of the religious right in America as well as possibly the rise of Muslim extremism around the world. Many of these writers attempt to prove that God doesn’t exist and that religion is fake and illogical. I have to say that I find these books and the arguments they try to make as obnoxious and, frankly, intolerant as the far-right religious groups that they are presumably attacking. I hate the assumption that those who don’t believe are uneducated, illogical and unaware of all of the evidence that there is no God. I consider myself very well educated, but I cannot shake the feeling that there is more than what is seen.

Analogies to teacups revolving around the sun aside, any attempt to talk about religion must start with the obvious truth that we can neither prove that God exists, nor that God doesn’t exist. Since we know this, any belief therefore is based on faith. Each person must make a personal decision, based on the evidence they know of, to decide if they think there is something else out there and what form that something else takes.

Often times when religion is discussed, people try to use statistics to describe how religious America really is. Based on what I know a majority believes in a God of some kind, and that percentage of Americans decreases when you ask about belief in the Creation and the literal nature of the Virgin birth. As I understand it, the author that my friend is reading seems to think that people who don’t believe everything in the Bible cannot really be considered true believers because it is illogical to only believe in certain parts. I think taking this position ignores a huge population and also demonstrates an ignorance of what makes religion so powerful.

In our life we are surrounded by things we cannot possibly understand. There are horrors that defy imagination, and beauties that we can’t comprehend. Facing that, some people choose to believe that it is merely the result of randomness outside of our control. Life is unpredictable and at times cruel and there is nothing we can do about it. But others cannot overcome the feeling that there is something more than this, that there is a force that we don’t understand but that is nonetheless impacting our lives. Whether it is an omnipotent being that demands we worship it and follow all of its rules, or a force or emotion that ties us all and can provide guidance, many feel there is something in our universe that is working for good.

In the end, our lives will always be surrounded by things that we can neither prove are true nor untrue. In those situations, people will come to their own conclusions. In a tolerant society, we would respect everyone’s position and not believe that anyone is more right. My hope is that we do one day live in such a society. Until then, I accept that I will be forced to watch as the extremely religious attack me for not being religious enough, and those that feel their logic and reasoning make them above belief in things unseen will mock me for having a faith in something else.

Big Mac Tries to Start Over

Ever since I first started posting to a blog, I have been trying to get my head around the steroids scandal in baseball, and how that affects my feelings on my once childhood hero, Mark McGwire. If anyone was to read everything I have written about it, you would not find a lot of consistency, but instead a spectrum of thoughts and feelings that change based on new developments. I have to admit from the start that it is an extremely difficult issue for me. Deep down, I know McGwire to be a good person who was very talented at baseball and a hard worker. He had a few bad years, due in part to nagging injuries, but he stayed focused and made a major comeback, culminating in the magical season of 1998. It was that season that I, and many other fans, forgave baseball completely for the strike of 1994.

Like many people, I did all I could to give McGwire the benefit of the doubt and trust that he never used steroids. But it became apparent that there was too much evidence, culminating in his testimony before Congress in which he refused to answer questions about his past.

I think it was that incident that pushed me over the edge. I felt that if he only admitted to what he did, I could forgive him. Instead, he chooses to hide from his past in what I used to think was a hope that people would soon forget that and only remember his performance.

A new article at ESPN has softened me a little bit. The article tries to shed some light on his current life and state of mind. The way I interpret it is that McGwire isn’t hoping that we forget about his misdeeds. Instead, he merely wants to leave that part of his life behind completely. Some people who used to know him speculate that he is so hurt by the whole situation that he doesn’t know how to deal with it, and wants to just forget about it and start over.

I still maintain that much of the blame lies with Major League Baseball. They refused from the beginning to do anything significant to deter the use of illegal and dangerous performance enhancing drugs (I also think the players’ union is as guilty, if not more so). There is tremendous pressure to use these drugs because, as Jose Canseco has said, they make mediocre players good, good players great, and great players exceptional.

In the world of professional sports, athletes are often isolated and forced to make decisions without any guidance. In that case, it makes sense that someone like McGwire, Canseco, or Barry Bonds, would look at the rules on the books and decide that MLB tacitly condones the use of steroids. It is understandable therefore that someone like McGwire would be crushed to watch MLB do a complete 180 and act like they had no idea and have been against it from the beginning. The owners have gotten rich off the resurgence of baseball, but have thrown McGwire et al under the bus (in my opinion, McGwire’s story isn’t the most tragic, especially compared to someone like Ken Camenitti who had serious problems and needed guidance).

The point of this post is that I can understand how McGwire might feel completely betrayed by what has happened. In that case, it makes sense that he wants to leave the pain of that experience behind him and start over with his new family and invest himself in his golf game.

But that doesn’t mean that I completely forgive him. I do think a reasonable person should have known what they were doing was not in the spirit of the game. More importantly though, when someone makes a mistake, they should come clean and take responsibility for their part of it. If he did that, and then completely disappeared off the face of the earth, I would definitely understand. The fact is that there are countless other people who could make the same mistake he did, and his silence is doing nothing to prevent them from doing so. I can only hope that maybe he will break his silence this year, once he finds out that he has been denied the Hall of Fame on his first ballot. But I am not holding my breath.

Hotel Rwanda; Fast Forward

I read a really sad article today in the Wall Street Journal (12/4/06, front page). Since I don't subscribe to the online version, and I doubt anyone who reads this does either (except maybe Old $), I won't bother trying to link to it. The main point of the article was that Paul Rusesabagina, the hero of Hotel Rwanda, is apparently no longer popular in Rwanda and it might even be dangerous for him to return. He has been making the most of his fame by doing public speaking tours and living comfortably here in the US. Before I continue though, I should add a disclaimer that we don't know for sure if what the article insinuates is actually true. The danger might be hyped and his unpopularity might be due to the appearance that he has ditched Rwanda for the US.

For now though I will take the article on face value, and the article says that Paul Rusesabagina is unpopular because he has made statements that are critical of the Tutsi-lead government in Rwanda. He has claimed that the government has only given Hutus token positions and has suppressed dissent. The later claim is believable considering a statement denouncing Rusesabagina from Rwanda's President. There also could be a rivalry since Rusesabagina has hinted at a desire to run for President.

But there are some larger issues that seem to be lurking behind the scenes. Whenever there is a genocide, we tend to want the victims to be completely innocent. In some cases they were (Jews during the Holocaust), but in others the ethnic groups were in open rebellion (the Kurds in Iraq and Muslims in Bosnia). This in no way excuses the genocides. But it does mean we need to be open to the fact that the once victims might one-day be oppressors (and might have been in the past as was the case with the Tutsis). We need to be as vigilant in condemning them as would be anyone else.

Unfortunately, the article also gives the appearance that civil war might descend on Rwanda again in the future. In many of the genocides, people who didn’t want to act dismissed the situations as generations-long civil wars that we cannot stop. Those favoring intervention will argue back that it is not a mere civil war, but an attempt from the top of one government to exterminate an ethnic / racial / religious group. The truth though tends to be that both sides are kind of right. No matter how much we wish that Tutsis and Hutus would learn the differences between them are largely false and created by their colonial power to create division, I have to accept that it will take time. Until then, further flair-ups are a possibility.

If Rwanda were to flair up again, it would probably make some people feel justified that we didn’t intervene. They would say that we will never be able to stop the fighting. While that may be true, the fact remains that we still need to intervene to stop genocidal governments, even if we decide not to intervene in civil wars (although I would prefer to intervene all the time if at all possible).

Sweat Shops - Redux

I had an intense debate with The Beard a while ago about sweat shops. My basic position was that there was nothing we could do to improve the working conditions in manufacturing jobs in the developing world. The reason wages are so low and conditions so bad is because there is an oversupply of labor. My argument is that the economic circumstances will resist our efforts at reform. Our goal therefore should be to do as much as we can to build up their economies while will drive up wages and allow for improved conditions.

My underlying assumption though does cause me problems. I do feel strongly about poor labor conditions in the developing world, but I also feel like some efforts to intervene will be useless (or even counterproductive – meaning driving jobs away). I have a lot of difficulty reconciling these two points in my mind. I want to say that I see these same issues at play in other policies like fair trade coffee and domestic price supports for agriculture (which I oppose for different reasons).

The issue here is what do we do about a situation that we think we are powerless to change? My position of waiting for the economies to grow allows for the suffering of the workers to continue for the foreseeable future. The Beard on the other hand, even if he accepted that the economic principles at play impede progress, would likely still advocate for some reform rather than accepting the current situation.

As I consider myself a moral being, I should not be okay, accepting the workers’ fate, even as I realize that dangerous working conditions for low wages are everywhere in the developing world (notably in agriculture and mining).

I realize now that the Nicholas Kristof column that inspired our debate, and my post supporting that column, were both insensitive to the horrible working conditions of the workers. What I should have said is that we want to somehow force better conditions, without driving the labor away. The workers need the money, and the countries need that boost to the economy.

But I also want to distance myself from the well-meaning but poorly thought-out proposals, like the ones that make comparisons between wage increases and price increases of the final product. A proposal like this one ignores the fact that the downward pressure on wages isn’t coming from consumers always needing cheaper Banana Republic shirts, but instead from the over supply of labor in the developing world and the need for bigger profit margins by the companies to remain competitive.

The bottom line is that I should not tolerate terrible working conditions. But I think we need to be more creative and think of solutions that keep in mind the serious economic constraints we work under.

If it Moves, Tax it

I got another one of those emails that tries to show that government is too big through a few short and clever jokes. Although I did laugh at them because of the stereotype they are using, I do think that sometimes jokes like that allow people to oversimplify issues and prevent them from thinking through their beliefs.

The big government attacks from fiscal conservatives (besides being hypocritical) are more often aimed at a few specific programs. They aren’t talking about the military, police, or even prisons; instead they are talking more often about social programs like welfare, Medicare and Medicaid, and sometimes even education spending.

In my mind though, the size of the government isn’t the issue. What matters is whether or not we want to provide a basic level of support for every person in this country. I never really understand why this is so controversial. If we are to consider ourselves an advanced and humane society, we should be willing, first and foremost, to protect everyone in our society.

The most common response to this is that the government shouldn’t be the one to do this. I will never understand this argument because it rests on the assumption that private and non-profit groups will be able to provide all the resources necessary to care for those in need through the generous donations of private citizens. Somehow I find it hard to believe that the people who aren’t willing to share their money with the government for these purposes will have a change of heart and give what is required.

If everyone agreed that we do need to take care of everyone, the next step is to decide what a basic level of services should be. I feel that this is a productive argument. Is minimum wage enough to live off? When should health care benefits get cut off (right now, there is a disincentive to getting a job because if you are paid a certain amount, you no longer receive Medicaid). How much public assistance is enough to take care of a family? This is where the argument should be.

I have to say before I close that setting a time-limit on welfare is a strange concept to me. I don’t know what the research is yet, but I can’t see how we will stop giving people the money they need for food and shelter because they have been receiving money for more than five years. This was an experiment though that many people wanted to try, so I guess for this we will have to wait and see the effects.

The bottom line though is that I want to see that everyone in this country is taken care of. And towards that end, I don’t care how big or small the government is (which is obviously relative) as long as we can accomplish that much.

Half-Way Through

I have had to stop in the middle of reading non-fiction books before. I didn’t make it straight through John Adams by David McCullough or His Excellency: George Washington by Joseph Ellis. But this time I am stopping for a different reason. It isn’t that I have temporarily lost interest in A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide like I did with the others. This time I have to stop because it is affecting my mood. I find that I can only read the book in small doses because of how enraged it makes me. So I will start again with Rwanda after a short break.

If there was only one thing that I could impart on people after reading through half of this book, it would the following: that there are many options of intervening to prevent genocides that are short of a full-scale ground invasion. Too often our leaders supported doing nothing simply because we were unwilling to perform the most drastic option of a full-scale invasion. During the Holocaust we could have bombed the train lines that were carrying prisoners to the concentration camps. In Iraq, we could have enforced a no-fly zone over the north to protect the Kurds, like we did after the Gulf War. In Rwanda, at the very least we could have jammed the radio signals that were issuing the killing orders. In Bosnia we could have ended the arms embargo against the Muslims in Bosnia and we could have launched air strikes against the encampments that were shelling Sarajevo. And in Darfur, we can also enforce a no-fly zone so that the Janjaweed cannot get air support from the Sudanese military.

But in all of the situations we could have at least spoken out against it, and done so without using confusing language that portrays the situation as a centuries-long civil war between groups that will never get along and trying to make both sides of the conflict equal partners in the atrocities. In all of these situations, we could have demonstrated leadership instead of refusing to act because there wasn’t already a pre-formed consensus to act.

If you are willing, there are other things that are important that I have learned from the book. To my extreme dismay, I found that there are very few lawmakers who are free of guilt in our inaction in the face of genocide. While I knew President Clinton ignored Rwanda, I didn’t realize he also refused to do anything significant in Bosnia. Also, I used to respect Colin Powell because I thought he was the only one in the Bush II administration that was advocating for intervention in Darfur. I based this on his insistence to use the word “Genocide”. I have to admit that I don’t know his actual position on Darfur now, but I do know that he advocated against intervention to protect the Kurds in Iraq before the Gulf War and also against intervening in Bosnia both during the Bush I and Clinton presidencies. I should admit though that I was pleasantly surprised by a number of politicians because of their forceful advocacy for intervention, including Senator Bob Dole.

What has made me particularly upset so far are the quotes from various administration officials in many different presidencies and how they talked around the truth in the same way that Bush II administration officials do over issues like Iraq. For example, Warren Christopher during a number of Congressional testimonies, referred to the situation in Bosnia as “tantamount to genocide.” It angers me so much to watch government officials try as hard as they can to avoid saying what is obvious because of what that entails.

Another thing I have learned is the importance of paying attention to early reports and projections of deaths even though they may lack the level of legitimacy that we seek in other circumstances. In most of these situations, people refused to act, or even pay attention, because they didn’t believe refugee reports or rough estimates of deaths. In retrospect, many of the stories out of Cambodia, Iraq and Bosnia gave a pretty accurate picture of the situation. I also have to recognize that while I tend to discount anecdotal evidence, I cannot let this influence me to ignore something like this in the future.

In the end, the only way this book will be useful is if it encourages action in the next genocide. Although forcing people to feel guilty for their lack of concern over the genocides, that feeling is meaningless if it doesn’t change behavior the next time around. But this is where the book has really changed my outlook and view of politics. I feel so much more cynical now because I get the feeling that we will never actually get involved unless it is in our interest. My resolve has doubled to pay attention to international events and speak out against tolerating these situations, but in the end I do feel like my efforts will be useless. When I tried to talk to my family about genocides, some of them said that we shouldn’t intervene and should take care of our own country first (for the record, two very smart women said we can do both). If I can’t convince my own family that 800,000 dead in Rwanda or two million in Cambodia is completely intolerable, than I am left with no hope that the rest of the world will ever come around.

It is time for another book so that I don’t completely lose faith in humanity and retreat into myself. For those of you who are tired of my moral crusades, rest assured that you will get a brief reprieve.

Deal with the Devil?

This is an interesting story from Afghanistan. I will be very interested to see if this deal with Taliban works out. The fact that the area is peaceful now allows me some optimism, but I doubt that anything will keep the Taliban from sometime soon fighting for power again.

Kristof and Iraq: A Follow-Up

Nicholas Kristof wrote a really good follow-up post to his column about coverage of the Iraq War (yes, Kirstof has a blog). That column has forced me to do a lot of thinking about how I interpreted news from Iraq after the invasion.

My original position was that reporters tend to report more about violence than they do stability and that this gives an overly negative view of the war. Kristof does recognize this, but here is what he says:

But that said, the basic narrative from reporters in Iraq in the last few years has been that security and sectarian violence is worsening, while the basic narrative from the administration has been that things are getter steadily better and that the reporters are exaggerating. To me, it sure looks as if the reporters got it right.

At the time I didn't trust that reporters were being unbiased. What I realize now is that maybe I should have had a little more faith that those covering the situation in Iraq would have reported that there was stability had it existed. Good journalists want to report accurately about the overall situation they are reporting on, and if they are talking about increased violence, I should probably be quicker to believe it.


Note: I replied to a comment on Kristof's post. I couldn't resist.

Have I Ever Been too Pessimistic?

In case you couldn’t tell, I have been thinking about Iraq a lot lately. I am having a lot of trouble reconciling my feelings and how they fit in with any policies I would want to propose. What I think it boils down to is when should we finally give up.

I don’t want to give up on Iraq, but I am finding it harder and harder these days to maintain any hope that there can be a decent outcome. We have done such a bad job at managing the war that it almost feels like there is nothing we can really do now to make up for it. My problem though lies in the guilt I feel. Since we have messed up so badly, I can’t feel comfortable leaving if the country is in shambles. At the same time though, history can clearly show us what happens when we think we can change something we cannot.

I have long disagreed with the comparisons to Vietnam simply because I thought they were more different than they were the same (for an interesting comparison of Iraq and Vietnam, read this NY Times opinion piece). In Vietnam we were fighting against determined nationalist forces. In Iraq we are standing between warring factions – the majority Shiites that realize their strength, the Sunnis who used to be in power and now see a situation where they get left out of sharing oil revenues, and Kurds who are looking for as much autonomy as possible. The better comparison in my mind is to Lebanon. But that comparison doesn’t project a better outcome.

I feel paralyzed because I cannot predict with any certainty what will happen to Iraq if we stay versus if we leave. I have to believe that things will be at least a little better if we stay, but that isn’t always the case. Many analysts predicted Vietnam would fall apart if we left, and it didn’t (Cambodia was a different story). But again, I don’t see this taking shape like Vietnam did. Lebanon was a disaster until the early 1990s. After Reagan pulled the Marines out, we basically let the country sort it out on their own. The peace there is a little tenuous, but it is far better than it was during the civil war. We can’t as easily leave and allow Iraq to go through ten years or so of civil war. We cannot turn our back on them like we did Lebanon because we created this situation.

In the end, I come back to the same conclusion that we need to stay. But at the same time, I don’t see an end to it. My bet is that we will stay a while longer, but end up pulling out in a year or two. But I get depressed thinking about how bad the country might be then and how much worse it will be after we are gone.

What makes me feel even worse is that there is talk of looking to Iran and Syria to help us out. While I don’t think ignoring them is productive, both countries have a history of manipulating weak countries for their own benefit. In Lebanon they have a common goal. But in Iraq, they are working on different sides. Each of the countries in the region have, “a dog in the fight,” but each supports different dogs. I cannot imagine that any country will be willing to do anything but look out for their own interests, no matter what we offer in return.

Basically, when I look into the future regarding Iraq, all I see is uncontrollable bloodshed with almost no reasonable options to stop it. My hope is that I am wrong, but I have lost almost all reasons to be optimistic. I wonder if those who were actually responsible for decision-making feel as guilty as I do.

Enlightenment?

This opinion contribution has some really good commentary on the secularist / modern enlightenment zealots and their war against religion. I may not be a member of the religious right, but I have no patience for the books out there now that are desperately trying to show the world that people who have faith in something other than science are delusional.

It's Not Your Fault

I never expected that Democrats would be doing this, but I guess I should have. Although blaming Iraqis for the state of the country isn’t the right thing to do, it is the politically expedient thing to do. If it is the fault of the Iraqis that the country is falling into a civil war, then Democrats should feel no guilt in pulling American troops out of the country. After all, despite the fact that many Democrat Senators and Congressmen voted in favor of the war, most claim that they didn’t really support it.

The facts are simple though, if you care to look. The administration has made a number of fatal flaws following the invasion that made a successful outcome almost impossible. To name a few; they came in with too few troops, showed contempt for the countries that wouldn’t invade with us which prevented them from wanting to help later on, disbanded the Iraqi army, did nothing to stop the looting or early insurgency, and did not seal the border to prevent foreign fighters. From day one, we did not create a stable situation in Iraq. Sunni insurgents killed Americans and Iraqis alike, and Shiites finally stopped being patient and decided to fight back. I don’t support that decision, but I am not sure that I blame them for it.

The fact is that we are at fault for the crisis in the country. Although I understand that the parliament cannot agree on anything and is largely ineffective, that isn’t why there is a problem. The problem is that violence was never controlled and people got tired of waiting for that to happen.

Here is the bottom line – blaming the Iraqis requires the assumption that they have, or at one point had, the capacity to stop the violence. The problem is that this assumption is very obviously wrong. We were the only ones that could have stopped the violence and improved the lives of Iraqis. But we failed miserably at that and therefore we should feel guilty. Our incompetence has ruined that country. Therefore, we should feel compelled to stay as long as we can to keep the violence as low as we can. If we choose to leave, we need to do some serious self-reflection and take credit for what we have done. Unfortunately, this is something politicians are usually incapable of.

Personality Matters

Until very recently I thought it was ridiculous that so many conservatives hate Hillary Clinton. I thought that if they were rational, they would easily see that she is far more moderate and would be far less dangerous to conservatism than someone like John Kerry, Barak Obama or someone in the mold of Howard Dean. I don’t know why it took me this long, but it finally dawned on me that personality should be important when making political decisions. This is something I recognized when it is in the affirmative, for example when looking at someone like John McCain or Barak Obama. But I never gave it enough credit when it was in the negative. If I am willing to vote for either McCain or Obama, neither of whom are exactly where I am on the political spectrum, then it is perfectly understandable for someone to oppose Hillary.

This doesn’t mean that I oppose Hillary. I think she would make a good president and depending on who she is running against, I would probably vote for her. But I do understand now that some people just don’t think she is a good person.

United Nations: What is it Good For?

Someone told me this weekend that they thought the United Nations is worthless and ineffective. I don’t necessarily disagree, but it made me wonder if he, or even if I, know what we want the United Nations to do. Like any legislative body, it is extremely slow to act and its members often make decisions in their own interests and not necessarily based on morality. But if there was some consensus on what we do want it to do, we could move it in a better direction and help it to become more effective. I think the biggest thing hindering the UN right now is that we don’t know what we really want from it.

Based on what I know, the UN most often defers to a state’s sovereignty. The internal affairs of a state are its own business. This might have been a good policy immediately following World War II (although even that is debatable), but it doesn’t fit now. In my opinion, the biggest problem facing our world is the treatment of groups within states. Genocide continues to be a problem that is ignored despite the commitment of states to take reasonable measures to stop it. There are also far too many people displaced from wars or famine, with governments that are incapable or unwilling to support them. In those situations, we need an international body that is willing to act to protect and defend these people.

The reality is that this change will not happen overnight. It is too easy for member states to turn away from these terrible situations and pretend that they are incapable of doing anything about it. As I read A Problem From Hell, I get depressed at how the world continues to fail in its moral obligation to protect those who cannot protect themselves. We are great at showing regret long after the fact, but we never learn the lesson that true self-reflection leads to. The famous saying is, “Never again, again and again.”

We didn’t learn enough from the Holocaust to stop Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge, Saddam Hussein, Slobodan Milosivic, the Hutu’s in Rwanda or even the Sudanese government and the Janjaweed. We have never learned the lesson, and so our regret comes off as extremely hypocritical.

But I don’t want to focus entirely on genocide. Millions die or are displaced from civil wars every year. We should care about this. War torn regions in Africa or Southeast Asia should not be ignored because they are hard problems. President Kennedy once said, “We choose to do this and the other thing, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”

I have been told during my rants that my position will never get me elected. Let me make something clear. My goal is not to get elected, but to change people’s minds. I want to make people think about their beliefs and understand the moral consequences of their positions. When we ignore major international problems, hundreds of thousands of people die. This should be just as enraging when it is Africans as it would be if it were Americans.

I did start this blog hoping there would be dialogue and debate. I want to know what other people think the United Nation’s role should be. I am calling for an end to what is now complete respect for state sovereignty. To me, this seems like an obvious solution to what ails the UN. To the others who think the UN isn’t useful, feel free to tell me what it should be doing.

For Macie and LEM

Kristof has done it again ($). This time though, it isn’t about genocide. His column is about early reporting of the Iraq War that described the violence and the potential for Civil War. I must be honest that I was also one of the people that ignored the early reports of escalating violence. I was desperate for Iraq to succeed because I wanted to see a relatively stable democracy develop in the Middle East. I hated the argument that Iraq was incapable of being a democracy and thought success here would prove that it could exist anywhere.

I need to give some credit where it is due, mostly to my friends that had said for a long time that this war was a mistake and that this would happen (Macie and LEM to name two). As soon as reports came out that Iraq was wrapped in violence, they brought this to my attention. And when they did, I told them they were ignoring the good reports and I said that things would settle down.

While I do admit that I was hesitant to hear the bad news even as it got worse, I still maintain that there were points when good management of the war could have made this more successful. I think if there had been more troops and we were able to maintain stability early on, we might have avoided the civil war that appears imminent. I must also recognize that part of the reason I cling to that belief is that I am an optimist, and I don’t want to admit that democracies cannot be helped along by foreign involvement. I believe that everyone wants some level of freedom and no one really wants (or needs) an oppressive regime like Saddam’s.

With that said, we do need to learn something from this example. Creating a new democracy is obviously a difficult mission and can end up with us leaving the country worse that when we found it. We must be prepared to use significant troop presence over long periods of time if we are to be successful. Since we are probably not prepared to do this, we should avoid nation-building scenerios like this one in the future.

What I am afraid of though is that this (similar to Mogadishu) becomes proof of why we should not ever get involved in other country’s affairs. Iraq was clearly a mistake, but there are other situations that could use international intervention and will not require long term troop commitment (Darfur, Somalia, Lebanon / Palestine). The Middle East (and Africa) has a violent past and present, but there is good we can do to protect defenseless victims and help the region move forward.

Genocide - Always so Controversial

There have been some interesting, although heated, debates recently about America’s role in stopping genocide. In a column from last week ($), Nicholas Kristof took a reader to task for suggesting that we should deal with domestic problems before fixing problems around the world. Since then, I have had similar arguments with family. The view expressed by the reader is not uncommon.

If someone says that they don’t get involved in that debate because they choose other issues that are more important to them, I can’t really find fault with that. There are so many problems in this world that choosing to fight any of them is worthwhile and noble. We all have to follow our passion.

What I do find fault with though is a similar argument that says we shouldn’t do anything about genocide because we haven’t fixed our own problems. Those two arguments may sound similar, but to me the difference is that the one I just mentioned dismisses any effort to stop genocide, whereas the first one only says that the particular person is more invested in other issues while not disinvested in genocide.

The reason I find the latter argument problematic is because its foundation rests on putting certain human lives above others simply based on nationality – an somewhat arbitrary division. I realize that we cannot intervene right now to prevent every loss of life or stop every repressive government. We have to draw lines somewhere. I happen to think that one of the first places to draw a line is when someone tries to eliminate, “either in whole or in part, a group based on their race, religion, or nationality.” I find the Holocaust appalling for the same reason that I find Pol Pot’s genocide appalling. It has nothing to do with the race of the victim, but that the victims were attacked en masse because of their race (or ethnicity or nationality).

One of the first things people attack when you talk about genocide is the fact that the UN resolution doesn’t include political groups. This part is debatable, but I can see why it exists. It isn’t because anyone tolerates persecution of political dissidents, but is instead based on a belief that there is something inherently destructive to the fabric of humanity when a culture is eliminated. Since some people might not agree that political mass murders should be excluded, I would accept as a compromise that groups should be forced to intervene when there is mass murder of political groups as well.

What usually happens with this argument though is that they think genocide is a bogus term if it doesn’t include political mass murder. Therefore, somehow it becomes acceptable to ignore mass murder based on race, simply because the genocide convention does not include politics.

The bottom line here is that I don’t see any moral difference between killing Rwandan Tutsis, European Jews, non-Muslim Sudanese, or Americans. The difference to me exists in the numbers that are murdered, the motivation behind the murder, and our ability to stop the murders. I am happy, but not satisfied with, condemnation of genocide. Looking back at our history, even that was too much to expect. I look forward to the day when everyone can feel anguished when they become aware of mass murder, and not be able to dismiss it because the victims are not American.

The Year Has Arrived

The funny thing about Ken Rosenthal’s column is that I don’t disagree with his position. I am so angry with McGwire, my boyhood hero, that I don’t know that I want him to get into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. My problem though is with all of the sanctimonious sports writers. They write like they had no idea that they were part of the steroids era, and now pretend like it is over because of some weak testing.

The fact is that I don’t think any of the baseball writers are objective. They beat up Barry Bonds (who deserves it) but as far as I can tell have given Sheffield and others a free ride. Writers bow down to Pujols, refusing to speculate on whether he uses performance enhancing drugs. Far from the investigative journalists that have infested politics, baseball writers only attack people where there is overwhelming evidence, and turn a blind eye to everyone else.

If I want to be fair though, I have to include myself in with my diatribe against sports writers. I was one of the many people who roared with indignation anytime people suggested McGwire was on steroids. I should have known the truth, and so my disgust is somewhat hypocritical. Ken Rosenthal and others have a hard choice to make, but I would find their columns much less ridiculous if they both took responsibility for their role and ignorance, while changing their behavior as we continue to exist in the steroids era.

Not Again

My Congressman is crazy. Reinstituting the draft is a ridiculous idea. Iraq is right or wrong on its merits and that has nothing to do with whether or not there is a draft.

Politics of the New Majority

There are two news stories that have begun to errode the excitement I had over the new Democratic majority. First, Pelosi might try again to put someone more favorable in a strong position. If this fails, I think it might be time to find a new Speaker of the House.

Also, it looks like Obama has finally let me down. And I thought it wasn't going to happen until his 2008 run for the Democratic nomination. Anyone who looks at the situation in Iraq has to see that pulling out American troops will lead to civil war. So why is he calling for troop withdrawals? He is relying on a common Democratic misconception that Iraq has the capacity to defend itself, they just aren't utilizing it right now (note: I borrowed this wording from an article I read - I can't find the link though). I admit that he seems genuine and speaks the truth. But if he can't see what will happen to Iraq, than I seriously doubt his abilities to correctly analyze a situation.

In good news though, I do like how the Demcocrats plan to deal with ethics reform: lots of individual bills, which hopefully means lots of votes. The flip side is that it might also mean very little (if any) change. We'll see.

More on the Cluster Bombs

I posted about this earlier, and I am relieved to see that it isn't going to be completely ignored:

The chief of staff of the Israeli military, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, ordered an inquiry today to determine whether the military followed his orders in its use of large numbers of cluster bombs in Lebanon during the month-long war with Hezbollah there over the summer.

Several human rights groups have criticized Israel’s use of cluster bombs in the fighting, saying they were dropped in or near populated areas.

Cluster bombs are not prohibited in warfare, but much controversy surrounds them. The munitions spray out many small bomblets that explode over a wide area and may strike unintended targets. In addition, some of the bomblets do not explode when they first hit the ground, and effectively become land mines that can be unwittingly detonated by civilians long after the fighting has stopped.

[Edit]

Israel has received cluster munitions from the United States for many years, and also makes its own. The New York Times reported in August that the State Department was investigating whether Israel used cluster bombs in Lebanon in violation of secret agreements with Washington that restrict their use.

It is interesting that we had a secret deal with Israel about their use. Apparently our criticism is secret also.

Tazer at UCLA

If you haven't seen the video of the student being tazered on YouTube, here it is. There isn't a lot to see actually, but you still get the idea that the police abused their authority. Tazers should be used only against people who are out of control and represent a risk to the safety of cops or bystanders. This clearly was neither. From what the LA Times is reporting, the police officer that discharged the tazer has some very contraversial incidents in his past.

Autism

From the NYTimes:

The research emphasis of the act is appropriate, given how little is still known about the causes and the physiology of autism spectrum disorders, as well as the means by which medical treatments can reduce autism’s severity if applied early enough. Basic questions like whether the frequency of childhood vaccines today contributes to autism are still unresolved.

As parents of a child facing these challenges, we applaud those lawmakers and fellow parents who have done so much to promote this and other initiatives. But research is not enough. We as a nation must also begin to focus seriously on treating those children who are already afflicted. At present, we are failing miserably to do so.

This Opinion piece explains briefly how expensive quality intervention can be (more than $50,000 a year for preschool children), but also how the chances for improvement are increased dramatically with it.

Studies now show that 40 percent to 50 percent of toddlers undergoing intensive Applied Behavior Analysis, one of the best-known methods, can be mainstreamed in regular classrooms without personal aides by the time they reach school age. (The figure is close to zero for children not given special care.) Most of the other 50 percent to 60 percent make notable progress too.

What makes this even more of a no-brainer is that it isn't just the humane thing to do, it also seems to be the efficient thing to do. By investing money up front to help improve the lives of these children, you decrease the long term costs associated with their care for the rest of their life. The authors are right, more funding for research is good, but not enough. Here are our options:

Our options range from mandating that insurance companies cover therapies documented to work, to trumpeting the example of places that do provide coverage in the hope others will follow, to expanding autism Medicaid waivers.

Trade Deficit

In case you wanted an objective analysis of the trade deficit and how we need to respond to it, the NYTimes has it.

My Education Policy

A while ago I wrote what was a lengthy piece on my foreign policy – or at least the military side of it. I never did get around to the non-military side, but I do plan to get back to that sometime soon. In this post I will cover education policy. I don't pretend that any of this is original.

Now is an exciting time to debate education policy. There are a lot of exciting options that are being explored and given a chance to prove their worth. Consider that across the country, different governments are exploring charter schools (including single sex charter schools), standardized testing, and the broad issue of administrator / teacher / political accountability. New York City is probably the best test case for all of these issues. Mayor Bloomberg has taken control of the school district (as has the Mayor of Los Angeles). Now, if things don’t improve, the mayor can no longer blame the school district, who would in turn blame the Superintendent, who would then probably blame the mayor. New York City is also filled with charter schools in some of the best and worst neighborhoods. And or course New York is participating in No Child Left Behind and is therefore using standardized testing.

Before I dive into all of those issues though, there are some less controversial ones that get very little attention but are as important if not more so. Let’s start with early education. There has been a lot of talk for a while now about the merits of universal pre-K / Head Start. The problem with Head Start as a universal solution is that it does nothing to deal with the kids who even with preschool fall behind. What is necessary instead is a universal early intervention program. A program of this kind would use diagnostic standardized testing to measure if children in grades K-3 (at least) are at grade level in math and reading at the end of the grade. If not, these children will participate in extended school year (over the summer) and extended school day programs (during the school year) to get them caught up. From the statistics I saw in Montgomery County Maryland, this type of program worked wonders, especially in the lower income areas of the county.

One of the reasons this worked of course was that Montgomery County had the resources to devote to all the children who needed them – although federal funding also played a major part. As a rich suburb of Washington, DC, Montgomery County could spread its resources to cover all areas of the county. It also shows the benefits from a county-wide school district, where resources can be redistributed when necessary. For counties that don’t have any money to spread, state funding should be made to compensate (rural poverty is not often given the attention it deserves, and they should be considered as much as urban areas).

Another not so controversial education policy that doesn’t get enough attention is rigor in high schools. It has become quietly accepted that programs like Advanced Placement (all courses finish with standardized tests, but no one complains about “teaching to the test”) and International Baccalaureate significantly improve high school education and achievement. In what can be called the “Stand and Deliver” philosophy (a great movie staring Edward James Olmos), you get the best results when you challenge students and set high expectations. These courses also prepare students for college while setting the expectation that it is within their reach. Having as many of these courses available as meets the demand of the students should be the focus for every high school, and the federal and state governments should help out where necessary.

I will admit that I have skipped over middle school. As I left Montgomery County, they were in the process of doing for middle school what they did for elementary and high school. I don’t know of a great model yet, but my bet is that it involves a combination of the two approaches; continued availability of extended day and school year programs, as well as rigorous courses.

So that gets us through some uncontroversial but necessary policies. Now I need to dive into the hard stuff. First of all, I feel that the charter school movement has proven that vouchers were a flawed idea. While adding some market pressures is a good idea, vouchers operated under the assumption that good schools cannot exist if funded publicly. Charter schools try to use the same methods as private schools to attract students, while retaining their public funding and open availability. The benefits of charter schools are their flexibility. They can specialize in arts, technology, the humanities, or anything else, and are also free to offer longer school hours and school years when necessary. They can change the curriculum without the bureaucratic hassle typical of school districts. The bottom line is that they can experiment.

This shouldn’t be thought of as a free pass though. In some of the research I have seen, charter schools, while often serving more minorities than the average public school, are not always better than their public school counterparts. The fact is that charter schools still need to be monitored to ensure that they are providing a quality education. In my mind, the best methods for this are accountability and standardized testing.

Let me start with accountability before moving onto the elephant in the room. I believe accountability is a great thing. I am glad that the voters in New York have someone to blame if the schools don’t improve or someone to praise if they do. The fact is that it wasn’t working when everyone could blame everyone else for bad results. It also didn’t help that you had sometimes three groups working on fixing the schools that each might have their own idea of what is best.

On top of that, principals and teachers need to be held accountable. In New York City, Bloomberg and Chancellor Klein started a pilot program where principals signed up for greater control over their budgets and operations while agreeing that if they didn’t perform they could be terminated. This type of policy needs to spread. Granted, new administration will not solve any problem alone (which is a weakness of NCLB, where failing schools are closed down and the students are sent elsewhere – this does nothing to address some of the environmental problems those students might be facing). But it is a step in the right direction and will be positive as part of a broad approach to education.

I also strongly believe that teachers need to be held accountable. I attended public schools all my life and can think of too many bad teachers that no parents wanted their child to get. Unfortunately, every year 25 or more students were unlucky enough to get that teacher. There is no reason that this should be the case. If a teacher is not performing, they should not have a job and children should not be subjected to them. The problem with this is that I don’t know when teacher tenure will ever be eliminated. The teachers’ unions’ lone goal is not to improve education, but to protect teachers, and this truth becomes clearer to me everyday. If you look at the policies they advocate for, they all benefit teachers first and they will never advocate anything that is bad for teachers (my view on teacher’s unions is the same as my views on unions in general – they often work very hard to protect their worst employees). In my mind, it would take a huge amount of public pressure to convince unions to give up tenure, and I hope one day people realize how bad it is to subject their kids to ineffectual teachers.

The last issue, standardized testing goes along with the previous paragraph on teacher accountability. While I don’t think standardized tests should be a major component of teacher reviews (because it encourages teachers to cheat), I also don’t think testing is a bad thing. I firmly believe it is necessary to have a benchmark to compare all kids to, so that we know if they are getting the basic education they deserve. We need to know if they are learning basic math and reading skills, along with language and history / social studies. As importantly, we need to stop the practice of social promotion.

As I see it, there are a couple serious objections to standardized testing. One is the fear of teachers “teaching to the test”. As a student of the Regents exams in New York State, that never concerned me. In the classes where the teacher was very strong, he or she found ways to go above and beyond the state mandated material. The teachers that weren’t strong at least gave us the basics of what the state thought was necessary. Therefore I don’t see this as infringing on some right to creativity for teachers. I am sure it sounds like I am bashing on teachers in this post. The fact is that I have great respect for teachers, and I think the proposals I have outlined will protect the good ones while protecting the children from the bad ones.

The one objection I do find to be compelling has to do with age appropriateness. My brilliant girlfriend has made this point to me a few times and it has definitely stuck with me. While I mentioned at the beginning that there needs to be testing / diagnostics at early ages so that interventions can be made available to students who need them, I do think we need to be conscious of how we do this. At young ages, it might not be good to force children to sit through long tests (I say might only because I don’t know this independently from what my girlfriend has told me). Since this post isn’t about curriculum but is about education policy broadly, the only thing I can say about this is that we need to be conscious of using appropriate tests and measures for children depending on their age.

As I bring this to a close, I realize I have forgotten one final thing – NCLB’s requirement that there be a quality teacher in every classroom. Since I have already posted about this, let me just say that I think the goals of making every teacher go through teacher training are right, the enforcement is sometimes too strict and doesn’t allow for mid-career people to come back to public schools nor does it give credit to private school teachers who have plenty of experience. These requirements should be more flexible.

As I do not have the energy to talk about special education or English Language Learners, I will cover that much more briefly in another post. This one should give people plenty to debate with me about since you now know where I stand.

Election 2006

I will be honest – I didn’t think I cared if the Democrats took back the majority in Congress. I was extremely upset at their inability to articulate (by they, I mean the leadership) any coherent vision. Instead, they spouted off vague but popular remarks about the need to change course without ever going into detail.

I realized today though that I am thrilled at today’s election results. I am still not a huge fan of Pelosi, but I am willing to keep an open mind and see whether she can run the House in a way that is productive for our country. I was also really excited to see how New York State shaped up, although none of that was really a surprise. I didn’t hate Pataki, but it will be nice to have a Democratic governor, and I have a lot of hope for Spitzer. With such a broad mandate, he will likely feel empowered to make some big changes.

More than the overall results, it was the individual elections that really got me excited. Rick Santorum lost his seat in the Senate, which is great despite evidence that he does fight for the poor. And things look positive, although nothing is certain yet, in Virginia. In fact, if the source the Times has is accurate, Allen might not even call for a recount. It is great seeing two obnoxious Senators learn a lesson in humility. We all need it from time to time. Also, I think it will be a nice change for Massachusetts to have a Democrat governor again, and now that I know a little about the governor-elect, I am interested to see how he does.

The Lieberman / Lamont race turned out the way I wanted, although I have to admit that I am less excited about Lieberman now that I know more about his domestic politics. I also have to admit that even though I didn’t think Lamont was a great candidate, it might have been better had Connecticut gotten a new Senator. I realize it sounds like I am playing both sides here. The point I am trying to make is that I think kicking out some old blood is good now and then (but your options for turnover might not be so good), which is another reason this election was so thrilling. The Republicans were getting greedy and were ignoring the policies that got them elected. Because of that, they deserved to go. I also think the Democrats were behaving in a similar way in 1994 and were long overdue to be kicked out. An optimal situation in my mind would be a change in party control of Congress every couple decades (or less if necessary).

All of this was great, but the real treat was the news I got after lunch today – that Donald Rumsfeld had been fired. I never expected this to happen so soon. I thought Bush would hold on to Rummy like grim death. I couldn’t be more happy. Rumsfeld’s decisions have created some of the biggest problems we face today (along with Cheney, of course). We invaded Iraq with too few troops and no plan to provide security after we defeated Saddam’s military. Both of those are on Rumsfeld’s shoulders. When we look back many years from now, I expect everyone will realize how bad we managed Iraq, and who was at fault. Starting very soon, we will be able to set a new course, and hopefully make some progress (although Friedman thinks our only options there are ($)"tolerable" and "awful").

A Political Roundup

I think my nightmare scenerio for the 2008 Presidential election would be John Kerry versus George Allen. Why does a Kerry candidacy scare me so much? Because of this. His first comment was just stupid. But his reaction was even worse. Instead of realizing how absurd his comment was and appologizing for it, he turns it around and asks Bush to appologize for "a Katrina foreign policy." It becomes more clear to me everyday that Kerry has nothing interesting to say except unsubstantive political talking points.

I have long hated politicians who favor popular rhetoric over substantive debate and genuine action. In a recent column, David Brooks shows ($) that a politician can both be guilty of over-the-top language while also being a productive and positive legislator. The best part is that Brooks demonstrates this using Rick Santorum. Apparently, Santorum is a tireless fighter for the poor and an effective legislator; qualities that never make it to light because of his choice to use divisive language. Brooks chooses to blame the press for only covering that one aspect of Santorum. And while I agree that the press often chooses to cover only what is controversial and exciting, I think the blame also rests on Santorum who could choose to soften him image and show this side of himself. Either way, it is an interesting read if you have Times Select. It actually made me hate Santorum a little less.

On Sudan

How are we not in Darfur yet? The actions of the Sudanese government are criminal and yet we have yet to do a thing about it. If Clinton were in office, something tells me he would have launched a strategic missle stirke or two already. Read the latest news and maybe you can tell me why we are turning a blind eye to this government.

More Good Fighting

Just so you don't think I am a complete mark for Peter Beinart, I will link to, and admit that I don't disagree with, an article by Frank Rich in the NY Review of Books that criticizes Beinart's book.

Rich has some really good things to say about The Good Fight. First of all, he doesn't want to let Beinart, and other Iraq War supporters in the Democratic party, off the hook so easily for supporting the invasion of Iraq. Even though Beinart actually admits that he was wrong without trying to suggest that Bush lied to him, his admission can seem a bit disingenuous in how he explains it. The fact is that there isn't a good reason why any Democrats should have supported the war, and any attempt to explain it away doesn't ring true. There was all the evidence at the time that containment would have worked, that Saddam wasn't stupid enough to use any WMDs that he might have had, and that this war would make us less safe in the war on terrorism.

Rich also takes issue with Beinart's focus on the far left, anti-war wing of the Democratic party. According to Rich, the Michael Moores and Cindy Sheehans are a small fraction of the party and therefore Beinart need not worry that they will dominate liberal foreign policy. The Good Fight does take aim at the far left, especially the bloggers, that spend more time thinking about how to attack Republicans than how to fix foreign policy. I see where Beinart is coming from; I would like to see more people in both parties focus on the war on terrorism and other international threats than battling each other. I share Beinart's fear that the partisan far left will dictate foreign policy, but I hope Rich is right that I need not worry.

Overall, Beinart's book doesn't really break much new ground. But its benefit is that it puts this intelligent liberal foreign policy proposal in the context of past popular Democratic platforms, and does it in a way to encourage Democrats to take this and run with it. His book is accessible, which means there is a hope that it will reach people who don't know this policy is out there. So even though it in't original, if it reaches more people, than it needed to be written.

Fright Night: Part 2

I don't think my expectations are too high here; I don't expect everyone in the US to know the difference between Shiite and Sunni. But I do expect FBI officials and members of Congressional intelligence committees to know this. When I say that I think they should know the difference, I am not even talking about their specific beliefs and how that came about. All I really think they should know is that Iraq and Iran are majority Shiite, Saddam and Al Qaeda are Sunni. The fact that some don't know this simple fact is just beyond words.

Love is Blind

I can't for the life of me figure out why Israel gets away with everything that it does. At some point, the fact that they too are dealing with terrorists has to stop being enough to defend all of their actions. I am a little late posting about this NY Times article ($) (maybe I can find it somewhere else for free) but it talks about how at the end of the recent war with Lebanon, Israel flooded southern Lebanon with cluster bombs. Cluster bombs are noteworthy for two reasons, one is their reputation for being difficult to aim (and illegal unless used specifically on military installations) and unpredictable; the bombs fail to explode 15 percent of the time. It is estimated that there are now one million unexploded bombs in the Lebanon countryside.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz published an article on Sept. 12 anonymously quoting the head of a rocket unit in Lebanon who was critical of the decision to use cluster bombs. "What we did was insane and monstrous; we covered entire towns in cluster bombs," Haaretz quoted the commander as saying.

It certainly was monstrous, but maybe the Bush administration or Congressional Democrats should be willing to speak up too.

Debating NCLB

There is a really good article in the NY Times about NCLB and teacher certification. It shows a significant flaw in the NCLB legislation that requires all public school teachers to be certified as "highly qualified" through education classes and training. While I don't disagree with the push to require teachers, especially new teachers, to get training and certification, the way it is being implemented is a mistake.

One of the biggest problems facing public school systems in a lack of flexibility and ability to change. This restriction on teachers only adds to a lack of flexibility. We should be doing all that we can to encourage the best teachers to work in public schools. We also have to realize that sometimes, the best teachers are people with PhD's or real world experience who late in life want to go into education. I saw this first-hand in Montgomery County, Maryland where the schools had trouble finding "highly qualified" teachers for such focused classes like nursing, engineering, and business. They had no problem though finding professionals that didn't have the certification but wanted to teach. Requiring them to go through a long certification process, that can also be a humbling (or even humiliating) process will only discourage these teachers.

This doesn't mean that I am opposed to all training requirements. One of the people interviewed for the article said that she thinks it is important that all teachers know how to work with students whose primary language is not English, or students who are being mainstreamed from special ed classes. I agree with that. But maybe there can be exceptions granted to teachers who have a background in instruction (college or private school) to skip the very basic classes on teaching that are a part of this long certification process. Someone who has taught in college might not know everything necessary to teach in high school, but they certainly have enough experience that they don't need instruction in classroom management or drawing up a lesson plan.

Conservatives are often trying to replicate the private sector in public institutions. While I certainly support that goal, I often think what we choose to replicate is not what makes the private sector strong. Private schools work so well because they have good teachers. But they have good teachers not because they have a cumbersome certification process; it is because they are flexible. That is what we need to replicate in our public schools.

North Korea

I have to say, the situation in North Korea has me very scared, especially after reading last month's Atlantic Monthly article. The article laid out the premise that N. Korea will only attack if it feels it is losing its hold on power, or if Bush launches an attack (even a small one targeting weapons facilities). The fact is, N. Korea might be on a path to losing control as its people are starving and even the military is poor. Also, listening to some Republicans, a missile strike isn't out of the realm of possibility (although I do admit that I don't think Bush would actually do it).

The article talks about the very scary prospect of a hard landing if the country collapses. That scenario could involve an attack on Seoul using all types of conventional and WMDs (N. Korea has a significant amount of chemical and biological weapons - and now maybe nuclear as well) and a ground invasion of South Korea.

What I didn't realize was the role China plays in North Korea. Apparently, it provides the most aide to the N. Korean government, and probably also has plans for it if the government falls. The article actually seemed to suggest that China is slowly trying to push for a soft landing North Korea collapse, which would then allow China to take over key parts of the country. I am not sure how I feel about that. While it would be nice to see N. Korea's transition managed by someone other than us, and therefore not have American resources tied up there, China is growing at an incredible rate, and giving them strategic ports and resources of N. Korea would only allow them to get even stronger.

To bring this back to the current situation though, I am having trouble reconciling how I think the administration should handle this. N. Korea wants direct talks with us for many reasons, one of which is to make it feel like it is a world power and justify it's military policies. I don't think we should encourage their behavior by giving them what they want. At the same time though, the government has made some very scary threats recently, and direct talks might be our best option if it results in having control over their nuclear technology. While it is clear that China can have a huge impact on North Korean policy because of the aide they provide, what is not clear is whether they fear China and would therefore become more combative with pressure, or if they respect China and would in fact respond.

What is frustrating about all of this is that neither the Clinton / Jimmy Carter plan of direct talks and US aide, nor the Bush policy of multilateral talks, seemed to have worked. The fact is that this regime will do whatever it takes to stay in power, and the hard line to walk is to prevent a collapse with a hard landing, while also not letting them win minor victories that helps them consolidate power in their country. I don't envy the Bush administration in this task, and I have to admit that they haven't been doing a terrible job on this so far.

A Rose

Although recent anti-immigrant legislation had gotten me down, fearing that our country was reverting back to xenophobia, news like this is very reassuring. It is nice to know that people feel more comfortable going by their traditional names and feel less compelled to anglicize them.

What Contradiction?

ENERGY INDEPENDENCE - LOWER GAS PRICES
Free America from dependence on foreign oil and create a cleaner environment with initiatives for energy-efficient technologies and domestic alternatives such as biofuels. End tax giveaways to Big Oil companies and enact tough laws to stop price gouging.

I saw the above on the HouseDemocrats.gov site under their "Six for '06" plan. I have to say that the above paragraph is the stupidest thing I have ever read and it makes me want to slap someone. Seriously, if there are two things that don't go together at all, it is energy independence and lower gas prices. Basically, what the Democrats tried to do with this was say two very popular things without thinking through how those two interact.

The only thing that will force us to decrease our dependence on foreign oil is if prices stay high. I am sick and tired of political parties that are incapable of saying what voters don't want to hear. We need high prices because we need to change our habits. This is the same unfortunate mentality that Bush tried to use after September 11, 2001 when he told Americans to go about their business - only the military would have to sacrifice. Voters need to realize that they will have to sacrifice in some situations to make progress possible. But neither Democrats nor Republicans are capable of saying that.

I can't wait for the next Democratic talking points:

"Increase government spending - Cut Taxes"

"Smoke, drink, eat unhealthy foods - Live much longer"

Now Who?

So families have claimed one more potential Presidential candidate: Mark Warner. Before him, it was Colin Powell. Why can't families claim people who shouldn't be running in the first place - like John Kerry, George Allen, or George W. Bush? And where was Ralph Nader's family when he was scratching and clawing for 2% of the vote that probably belonged to Gore?

I don't know a whole lot about Warner, but what I do know suggests I would have liked hearing him make his case for 2008. Now it looks like we are left with Hillary and maybe a Gore and / or Kerry retread. Perfect. Granted, there are bound to be others; like Harry Reid who might grace us with his vague but poll-tested policies, or Joe Biden who would be a great candidate as long as he writes his own speeches. Is it too much to hope that Bill Nelson will rise above the crowded field?

By the way - with all the talk about Hillary, I think it says something about our political system and how big name recognition is when there is every possibility that four presidents in a row could be from only two families.

Last Action Hero

I keep finding more reasons to support the Governator. And this recent law might even make a fan out of my animal-loving friend in DC. It is clear that California is the state to look to for progressive policies on a very large scale. From solar panels and emissions standards, to laws protecting animals, Arnold has shown that he is willing to work with Democrats to make big changes for his state. I only wish there were more Republicans like him.

Thoughts on Containment

Peter Beinart's book obviously got me thinking. His main conclusions were solid, and I have found that I agree with them. Basically, we need to return to the liberal tradition of supporting containment while remaining strongly anti-terrorist. He backs this up by comparing it to the liberal tradition of anti-communism. What Beinart does acknowledge, but I don't know that he fully develops the thought, is that anti-communism didn't always make for clear policy decisions. His explanation for why Vietnam was such a failure was that the communist movement there was also a nationalist one. He also didn't spend enough time talking about the other communist or socialist movements that we surpressed during that time that also might have been nationalist in nature.

The reason I bring this up is that we are facing similar situations today when we look at Islamist (defined as groups desiring to spread extremist forms of Islam) governments, militias, or even political parties. In those situations, when do we decide to oppose them and when do we tolerate and possibly work with them. Free elections in Palestine, Iraq, and Egypt have shown that Islamist movements have some popular appeal. We have a history of interfering in free elections because we didn't like the outcome, and I wonder if that is truly wise.

But the spirit of Beinart's message is that containment works because in the long run, democracy will win out over repressive forms of government. This suggests that we need to tolerate these popular Islamist movements in some situations, although pressure to make them collpase or change (as we are trying to do Hamas) shouldn't be ruled out. But this also means that socialist governments like the ones springing forward in South America also should be tolerated because we are confident that in time, they will become more moderate and democracy will prevail. As an added benefit, toleration will take some of the wind from their sails, as people like Chavez from Venezuela get a lot of political points by attacking Bush.

So Touching

This story is very quaint and romantic. The small American farms in the mid-west are disappearing, and America's hard-working, traditional soul is going along with it. Or at least that is what we are meant to believe when we read about the loss of small agriculture in this country as a metaphor for the loss of American values. Unfortunately, this story tends to encourage the sort of protectionist policies that condradict the free trade spirit we force everyone else to get behind when it benefits us, at the expense of developing countires. The article comes to a perfect conclusion with the author suggesting that if Democrats could protect these dying farms, they might be able to steal these socially conservative voters from the Republicans.

This is something we cannot buy into. Compormising our principles to steal a few votes in unacceptable. Instead, we need to be willing to stand behind free trade even during the times when it doesn't benefit American workers. Our hypocricies are ruining the developing world, and articles like this one are putting phony sentiment ahead of sound policy.

Tax and Spend

This is why I hate Congress. You can imagine that this might get a budget analyst like myself really upset. When legislation is being passed not on its merits, but because it will bring money back to the district - and when that money going back to the district is not likely to be the most efficient use of the money but will help with reelection, it makes me furious. And this guy is thinking of running for Speaker of the House if the Democrats take over? John Murtha and his cronies need to go. Too bad our electoral system makes it impossible to behave in any other way.

I realize there are a few people who want to remind me of my comments mocking Ned Lamont for saying that he wants to get the pork out of politics. It isn't because I disagreed with his stance, but I am very pessimistic about the chances of him (or anyone) sticking to that promise and actually staying in office.

Rumsfeld Needed to Go

Apparently, everyone thought Rumsfeld needed to go except Bush - and Cheney (but that shouldn't surprise anyone). My only question is how Bob Woodward keeps getting sources inside the White House. However he does it, his articles are always interesting as they give a picture of what is (allegedly) going on behind the scenes. Trust me when I say you need to read this.

In the Arena

For anyone that is reading this, I want to point you to another blog, In the Arena. It is another smart, political blog started be some friends of mine. I am excited about it and hope everyone checks it out.

Really? Jay Gibbons?

This shouldn't surprise anyone, but there are more steroids accusations flying around baseball. Some of the names are not new to the accusation game, like Roger Clemens and Miguel Tejada, but others are, like Andy Pettitte, Brian Roberts and Jay Gibbons. The funniest name on the list has to be Jay Gibbons, but I guess it just goes to show you that steroids can in fact make a mediocre player into, um, still just a mediocre player. I was suspicious of Brian Roberts though. His breakout performance in 2005 was great but a little hard to believe.

Unfortunately, their denials are unconvincing. Read the article and you will see that each of them point to the fact that they haven't ever failed a drug test. Now while that works for someone like Lance Armstrong (although I think we still have our doubts about him), it doesn't ring true for MLB players where testing has only been around for a year and doesn't go so far as to test for human growth hormone.

Mahdi Army for Hire

It is probably a bad sign that Moktada al-Sadr is losing control over parts of his militia. Although I guess it shouldn't be too surprising. But at least it makes it sound like Sadr wants a stable Iraq, which gives me some confidence that the country may remain relatively stable in the long run.

Islamic Militants in Somalia

We need to keep an eye on this situation. If we are serious about fighting the war on terrorism, we cannot let Islamist militants take over governments. Of course, if we weren't in Iraq, we might actually be able to do something about this. Instead, we can only watch another Taliban form.

Child Labor

It is stories like this one that make me support manufacturing jobs in developing countries. The article in the NY Times describes how child labor is decreasing all over the world with one exception, sub-Saharan Africa. In situations like the one described, families have to find any way they can to make enough money to eat. In this case a nine-year-old boy breaks rocks down to be sold for cement. My opinion is that if more manufacturing jobs, even those with questionable safety practices came in, scenerios like the one described would decrease. Granted, there are a lot of issues at play here. Deaths from HIV / AIDS play a huge part in breaking up families and leaving children orphaned. Also, conflicts in the region lead to displacement, famine, disease and restrict foreign investment and domestic growth.

As I see it, a number of things have to happen to improve this situation. One, which is probably the most important but that I find a little unlikely given the slow progress on Darfur, is to decide that peace and security in sub-Saharan Africa is a priority. The number of people killed or displaced in the region due to conflict is in the millions. No progress will be made until the conflicts end. Secondly, we need to take bigger strides in prenting the spread of HIV / AIDS as well as treating those that have it. Investment in this area has been going up, but much more needs to be done.

Lastly, and still very important, we need to encourage economic growth, which includes not being strict when it comes to labor practices. We have to realize that the working conditions in the jobs that are available in these countries (not just in Africa, but other developing countries) are similar if not worse than the conditions at the manufacturing jobs that come in. I would never advocate for boycotting agriculture products from developing countries if I found out that the workers are underpaid and overworked, and so I don't advocate similar actions when it comes to manufacturing. This is especially true because the boycotts often have the effect of closing down the factory or at least discouraging new ones from opening. Wages will never go up, and conditions will not improve, until these economies grow. So what we need to do is enourage the building of more factories, not less, and the consumption of more of their agriculture products, and less of ours if need be.

My Foreign Policy Plan

To avoid the accusation that I can only criticize the leadership of my party and have no real ideas of my own, I am finally presenting the first of my foreign policy papers. I do not act like these are new or creative. But I do think they match with Democratic principles in most cases, although they might be a little hawkish.

One of my main concerns is how the Muslim world views us. What President Bush correctly realizes is that we have enemies out there whose only goal is our destruction. Many of these enemies do not need an excuse and will attack us no matter what we do. But there are some who turn to terrorism and violence because of a humiliation that our policies cause. Issues in Palestine and Lebanon, which stem from our unwavering support of Israel, are easy enough to change in the future and have major impacts on hatred for the US and the West. There is also the issue in Iraq, where an apparent casual disregard for Iraqi civilians both in military battles with Saddam’s military at first and then insurgents, as well as our inability to prevent the looting, have also harmed our image.

So there are some serious steps we can take in the future. First of all, and I am appalled that Democrats didn’t stand up when it was happening (note, when I say Democrats, I mean the leadership), we need to control Israel. I am not the type that excuses Palestinian violence on Israel. But conversely, that doesn’t mean Israel should be given free reign to “defend itself” either. The war in Lebanon was disgusting and definitely unprovoked (kidnapping an Israeli soldier in that war isn’t as bad as it sounds – it is a common tactic, implicitly tolerated, to get Hezbollah soldiers out of prison through prisoner exchanges). I have never before understood why Muslims would think we value their lives so much less until I watched that war unfold. Countless innocent civilians were killed as we talked about Israel’s precision bombing. I do have to recognize though that we made the same claims in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in one of those situations I still supported our attacks. It is a little hypocritical of me, and I don’t exactly know how to reconcile that, except to say the war in Afghanistan was justified and this was not.

The biggest tragedy, and foreign policy mistake, was that Lebanon is one of two legitimate examples of democracy in the Middle East (along with Turkey) that could serve as role models if only we nourished them. What this means is that we need to prevent, at all costs, any thing that would destabilize these countries. To protect Lebanon, we need to tell Israel not to invade and destroy half of Beirut (and we can tell them that, we give them more per capita aid than we do any other country).

While we are at it, we need to get much more invested in the situation in Palestine. President Clinton got involved and made big strides – which were quickly erased as soon as both sides realized they didn’t actually have to stick to their end of the bargain (Israel continued to build settlements and Palestine continued bombings). With the right amount of pressure we might again be able to make progress, while also showing that we care about the plight of the Palestinian people.

To ensure Turkey’s stability, we need to prevent civil war in Iraq because it would turn into a regional war. Turkey has long said that it will prevent its Kurdish population form seceding to join an independent Kurdistan, which is only a likely possibility if Iraq falls apart. While I understand the desire to make plans to leave Iraq, it bothers me that Democrats are in such a hurry to leave. I don’t like Bush’s mantra of staying the course, but I think patience is extremely wise. The violence right now is only a glimpse of what it could be. Shiite militias, those loyal to Iran as well as those loyal to Sadr, have been biding their time waiting for the US to leave. They have very strong military capabilities, and a premature departure could make them more willing to exercise that to gain power or even separation. The best thing we can do now is to continue to make it clear that we will leave soon, while not making a mad dash for the door without care to who runs the house.

Another major issue that is approaching us is Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While they claim they only want the technology, it is pretty clear that is a lie. And while everyone agrees that they shouldn’t be allowed to have nuclear weapons, we need to decide what to do if they don’t listen to us and how soon to do it. There are already plenty of conservatives who want to use missile strikes to take out their processing facilities. This worked on Saddam before the Bush invasion, but Iran can do much more damage to us than he could. While we are still in Iraq, Iran can choose to be more involved and create a much more violent situation there. They have real power over us, and we need to acknowledge that as we decide how to deal with them.

This is the main reason why I am disappointed over the Iraq debate. We need to be prepared to talk about containment or we risk being left out when the administration makes the decision to attack. Containment should be tried with Iran as best as possible. As part of this strategy, we should be willing to talk with them to see if they really want to be a partner with the West, but we should be ready to use sanctions.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions are a very difficult situation, and every time we think about calling a hearing to talk about pre-war intelligence we risk looking back when we need to be looking forward. One of the main obstacles to containment is that sanctions will not be as powerful. Iran is overflowing with oil revenue, which will make them better able to deal with sanctions. In the end, we might need to decide which is worse, a nuclear Iran, or the conflict that could ensue if we do launch an attack on them. After all, North Korea and China are both nuclear, and we didn’t risk attacking them.

After Iraq

While I strongly advocate for patience in Iraq, I realize that there will most likely be significant troop reductions over the next two to three years at the longest. This begs the question about what is to be done with our military in the future. Hopefully we have learned that nation-building (which Governor George W. Bush opposed when he was running for president in 2000) is much more difficult than we thought. But that doesn’t mean we should abandon it altogether. In fact, my main reason for opposing the War in Iraq was that I thought we needed to maintain troop presence in Afghanistan to help guide it to democracy. That may be a lost cause now, but I believe it would have worked had we stayed. After Iraq, maybe we will need to redeploy some troops to Afghanistan to see if we can get more control over the country (a bigger goal than just eliminating Bin Laden).

We also need to be prepared to use our military in other major conflicts around the world, something we are not capable of right now. If we were not tied up in Iraq, we might be able to be providing a much bigger presence in Lebanon, helping them disarm Hezbollah. More importantly, we could be in Darfur. I believe that Bush really does want to do the right think in Darfur. He has done more than Clinton did in Rwanda (which doesn’t say much) by actually talking about it as well as acknowledging that it is a genocide. But while we are in Iraq, we don’t have the troops to send there. Instead we have to rely on the other NATO countries or the UN to get around to sending troops. There is hope that they might go within a month or so, but they are long overdue.

When we have our troops freed up again, we can lead the way into these countries instead of waiting for the UN to move. To find precedent for this we need only look to Bosnia. One thing we need to do though is drop the rhetoric that we need UN support for any move we make. As the conservatives pointed out before Iraq, the UN does not always act in our best interests, or the best interests of people in the middle of a humanitarian crisis. For the right reasons, we should be willing to ignore the UN.

Right now, Sudan is saying they will not admit UN troops to their country. As of right now, the UN is unwilling to violate a nation’s sovereignty to protect people of that country. Kofi Annan might be willing to move in that direction, but we must not even hesitate. Sudan has no right to prevent us from getting involved, and the threat should be that if they try to stop us, we will do more than protect their citizens, but we will attack them and their gun-ships that have supported the janjaweed.

The more I learn about the many crises in the world, the more I think we need to get involved, militarily if necessary. While Donald Rumsfeld thinks our military needs to be smaller and more agile (which was a miserable failure in Iraq), I see the future of military conflict as peacekeeping missions which will require more troops not less. Some conflicts will clearly be in our best interest, as peacekeeping in Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq and even Palestine would be. But others won’t, like Darfur and other African conflicts. I hope that we can advocate for all of these though, because the countries we hope will grow out of their third-world status can only do so if security exists.

I focused this post on military foreign policy only because I think we need to have a strong position on what we want our military to do. In another post I hope to lay out what our aid and economic efforts should do. I hope that just because I am not including them in this post, I don’t give the impression that I think that is less important. In fact, as Truman rightly understood, improved economic status where people can raise a family in comfort will dramatically work to fight the embarrassment and anger that is often so easily turned on the West.